{ "name": "Idea Locator ripeness board", "generated": "2026-10-25T21:53:02Z", "ledger_head": "ffdbaff56ee76afb6b3c5f3de7bb86b1c11bbe817897482fbdcd7d6cd6cc9a53", "license": "CC BY 4.0", "categories": [ { "slug": "advanced-nuclear-smr", "name": "Small modular nuclear reactors", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/advanced-nuclear-smr/", "question": "Is small modular nuclear power viable now that the NRC's new licensing rule is final?", "answer": "The NRC's technology-inclusive licensing rule, Part 53, was published on 30 March 2026 and took effect on 29 April 2026: the regulatory precondition has crossed. NuScale's first planned plant, the UAMPS Carbon Free Power Project, was cancelled in 2023 on cost. Commercial power from a new small reactor in the US is the trigger still pending.", "verdict": "pending", "verdict_reason": "Licensing has crossed; first-of-a-kind cost and commercial operation have not.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E5+E1", "constraint": { "name": "Licensing path and first-of-a-kind cost", "detail": "Advanced reactors needed a licensing framework built for them, then a first plant that delivers power at a price utilities accept." }, "crossing": { "date": "2026-04-29", "text": "10 CFR part 53 takes effect (licensing crossed); commercial operation pending." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Transatomic Power", "founded": 2011, "died": 2018, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Shut down, September 2018", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatomic_Power", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "UAMPS Carbon Free Power Project (NuScale)", "founded": null, "died": 2023, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Cancelled, November 2023, after cost estimates rose", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NuScale_Power", "conf": "M", "note": "a project, not a company" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [ { "date": "2026-03-30", "text": "NRC final rule: Risk-Informed, Technology-Inclusive Regulatory Framework for Advanced Reactors (part 53), effective 29 April 2026.", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2026-06048", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "africa-last-mile-distribution", "name": "Rural last-mile retail distribution in Africa", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/africa-last-mile-distribution/", "question": "Is rural last-mile retail distribution in Africa viable again after Copia?", "answer": "Copia Global built rural e-commerce in Kenya through village agents, raised over $100M, and entered administration in May 2024 after failing to raise more money; layoffs of more than 1,000 staff followed. Physical distribution needs a longer runway than venture funds offer, and that gap has not closed.", "verdict": "nogo", "verdict_reason": "The capital-duration mismatch that killed it has not changed.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E8", "constraint": { "name": "Patient capital", "detail": "Building physical distribution takes longer than a venture fund's life; the money ran out before the network paid." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Copia Global", "founded": null, "died": 2024, "raised_usd_m": 123, "how": "Entered administration, May 2024, after failing to raise new funding", "source": "https://techcabal.com/2024/05/24/copia-enters-into-administration-after-failing-to-secure-funding/", "conf": "M", "raised_note": "$123M across eight rounds (TechCabal); others report over $100M" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "algorithmic-news-feeds", "name": "Personalised news feeds", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/algorithmic-news-feeds/", "question": "Why did PointCast fail, and when did personalised feeds become viable?", "answer": "PointCast (1992) pushed personalised news to desktop screens from 1996, reportedly turned down a $450M offer from News Corp in 1997, and was sold for a small fraction of that in 1999. Its constant updates clogged dial-up lines and office networks. Facebook's News Feed (2006) ran on always-on broadband, which had passed 20 lines per 100 Americans.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Always-on broadband (about 20 per 100 in 2006) made a constantly updating feed cheap to deliver.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E2", "constraint": { "name": "Always-on broadband", "detail": "A feed that updates all day needs a connection that is always on and not metered by the minute." }, "crossing": { "date": "2006", "text": "US fixed broadband reaches about 20 lines per 100 people (World Bank)." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "PointCast", "founded": 1992, "died": 1999, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Sold in 1999 after rejecting a reported $450M offer", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PointCast_(dotcom)", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Facebook News Feed", "founded": 2006, "note": "launched September 2006", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feed_(Facebook)" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": { "label": "Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people, United States (ITU via World Bank)", "unit": "per 100", "now": [ "2024", 38.8571729185246 ], "then": [ "1999", 0.986557204 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "aquion-energy", "name": "Aquion Energy", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/aquion-energy/", "question": "Was Aquion Energy too early for grid batteries?", "answer": "Aquion Energy made saltwater (aqueous sodium-ion) batteries for grid storage and filed for bankruptcy in March 2017. Its pitch was being cheaper and safer than lithium-ion, and lithium-ion then fell steeply in price. Like Solyndra, it was a cost-curve inversion: a later date would have been worse.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Its pitch depended on lithium-ion staying expensive.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E1", "constraint": { "name": "Bet that lithium-ion stays expensive", "detail": "Cheaper lithium-ion removed the reason to buy a different chemistry." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Aquion Energy", "founded": 2008, "died": 2017, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, March 2017", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquion_Energy", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "behind-the-meter-power-compute", "name": "Behind-the-meter power for compute", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/behind-the-meter-power-compute/", "question": "Is behind-the-meter power for data centers ripe?", "answer": "Grid interconnection queues stretch for years while compute demand surges, and stationary storage prices fell sharply in 2025, to about $70/kWh by BloombergNEF's survey as cited in 2026 research. Siting generation and storage at the data center sidesteps the queue. The open check: the companies said to have died trying this in the 2010s, at $400+/kWh storage, are asserted but not yet named.", "verdict": "check", "verdict_reason": "The crossing looks real; the graveyard is asserted at cohort level and must be enumerated before a ripe call.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E1+E5", "constraint": { "name": "Storage cost and grid access", "detail": "On-site generation needs cheap storage to be firm, and it is only worth the trouble when grid connection is slow or scarce." }, "crossing": { "date": "2025-12", "text": "Storage price survey: about $70/kWh, down about 45% in a year (BloombergNEF, as cited in 2026 research)." }, "graveyard": [], "winners": [], "evidence": [ { "date": "2025-12", "text": "Stationary storage price about $70/kWh, down about 45% year on year (BloombergNEF survey, as cited in the 2026-08-01 research; not independently checked).", "unlinked": "BloombergNEF data is not redistributable; figure as cited in research notes", "conf": "M" } ], "calls": [ "C4-btm-power-crowded" ], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "better-place", "name": "Better Place", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/better-place/", "question": "Was Better Place too early for battery swapping?", "answer": "Better Place raised hundreds of millions of dollars to build battery-swap stations and went bankrupt in May 2013 with one car model that used them. Swapping needed carmakers to standardise their battery packs, and they would not. NIO later made swapping work in China by being the carmaker itself. It was available at any date to a differently structured company.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "It needed rival carmakers to standardise on its pack.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Better Place", "founded": 2007, "died": 2013, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Bankruptcy, May 2013", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place_(company)", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "NIO (battery swap)", "founded": 2014, "note": "swaps its own packs in its own stations", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nio_Inc." } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "boo-com", "name": "Boo.com", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/boo-com/", "question": "Was Boo.com too early for online fashion?", "answer": "Boo.com spent about $135M in six months building a heavy 3D fashion store and collapsed in May 2000. Net-a-Porter launched online luxury fashion that same year, on the same bandwidth, and became a lasting business. The enabler existed; the execution did not.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Net-a-Porter launched online fashion in 2000 and succeeded.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Boo.com", "founded": 1998, "died": 2000, "raised_usd_m": 135, "how": "Collapsed in May 2000", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boo.com", "conf": "M", "raised_note": "about $135M, as widely reported" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Net-a-Porter", "founded": 2000, "note": "online luxury fashion, founded 2000", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net-a-Porter" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "camera-glasses", "name": "Camera glasses", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/camera-glasses/", "question": "Why did Google Glass fail, and when did camera glasses start selling?", "answer": "Google Glass sold to consumers as a $1,500 Explorer Edition from 2013 and stopped in January 2015 amid a privacy backlash; the enterprise edition ended in 2023. North, maker of Focals, was bought by Google in 2020. Ray-Ban Meta glasses (2023), with a camera and an assistant but no display, passed 2 million sales by February 2025, and EssilorLuxottica sold 7 million Meta glasses in 2025 alone.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Social acceptance of always-present cameras and cheap on-device AI arrived by 2023.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Social norm around face-worn cameras", "detail": "Glass named its own blocker: people around the wearer objected. A product that looks like ordinary glasses changed that." }, "crossing": { "date": "2023", "text": "Ray-Ban Meta launches in late 2023; over 2 million sold by February 2025 (EssilorLuxottica)." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Google Glass (consumer)", "founded": 2013, "died": 2015, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Consumer sales ended January 2015; enterprise edition ended 2023", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Glass", "conf": "M", "note": "a product line, not a startup" }, { "name": "North (Focals)", "founded": 2012, "died": 2020, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Acquired by Google in June 2020; Focals discontinued", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/google-acquires-north-augmented-reality-glasses-start-up.html", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Ray-Ban Meta", "founded": 2023, "note": "camera, audio and assistant, no display", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray-Ban_Meta" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2025-02", "text": "EssilorLuxottica: over 2 million Ray-Ban Meta glasses sold since the late-2023 launch.", "source": "https://www.uploadvr.com/ray-ban-meta-glasses-sold-2-units-production-to-be-vastly-increased/", "conf": "M" }, { "date": "2026-02", "text": "EssilorLuxottica: 7 million Ray-Ban and Oakley Meta smart glasses sold in 2025, more than triple 2024.", "source": "https://uploadvr.com/meta-essilorluxottica-sold-7-million-smart-glasses-in-2025/", "conf": "M" } ], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "clinical-genetic-testing", "name": "Broad clinical genetic testing", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/clinical-genetic-testing/", "question": "Is broad clinical genetic testing viable again after Invitae went bankrupt?", "answer": "Invitae sold broad genetic test panels at low prices, grew volume quickly, and filed for bankruptcy in February 2024; Labcorp bought its assets. Sequencing kept getting cheaper; what failed was getting paid, with insurers denying many claims. Whether payer coverage for broad panels has improved since 2024 is the check that decides this.", "verdict": "check", "verdict_reason": "Cost keeps falling; the binding constraint, reimbursement, has no public series yet.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E5+E1", "constraint": { "name": "Insurer reimbursement for broad panels", "detail": "Volume grew, but revenue per test stayed low because payers denied or underpaid claims." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Invitae", "founded": 2010, "died": 2024, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, February 2024; assets bought by Labcorp", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invitae", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [ { "date": "2024-05-06", "text": "FDA's laboratory-developed tests rule is published (later vacated by a court in 2025).", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2024-08935", "conf": "H" }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "text": "FDA removes the LDT rule's provisions to implement the court's vacatur.", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2025-18239", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "cloud-infrastructure", "name": "Cloud infrastructure (utility computing)", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/cloud-infrastructure/", "question": "Why did Loudcloud's utility computing fail, and when did the cloud become viable?", "answer": "Loudcloud (1999) sold managed hosting as utility computing, went public in March 2001 and sold its hosting business to EDS in 2002, keeping the software (Opsware, bought by HP for $1.65B in 2007). Every customer still meant dedicated hardware. AWS (2006) sold the same promise on virtualised, shared servers, which Xen (2003) and VMware made cheap.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Hardware virtualisation matured in 2003; AWS launched S3 and EC2 in 2006.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E7", "constraint": { "name": "Hardware virtualisation", "detail": "Without slicing one server among many customers, 'utility' computing was outsourced dedicated hosting with a utility's price promise." }, "crossing": { "date": "2003", "text": "Xen hypervisor released (2003); VMware ESX in production use." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Loudcloud", "founded": 1999, "died": 2002, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Sold its managed-hosting business to EDS in 2002; renamed Opsware", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opsware", "conf": "M", "note": "Opsware (the software) sold to HP for $1.65B in 2007" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Amazon Web Services", "founded": 2006, "note": "S3 (March 2006) and EC2 (August 2006)", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Web_Services" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2003", "text": "Xen, the open-source hypervisor later used by EC2, was first released in 2003.", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xen", "conf": "M" } ], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "consumer-genomics-subscriptions", "name": "Consumer genomics and health testing", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/consumer-genomics-subscriptions/", "question": "Is consumer genomics viable again after 23andMe and Arivale?", "answer": "Reading a whole genome cost about $95M in 2001 and a few hundred dollars by 2022 (NHGRI). Yet Arivale, a genome-based wellness subscription, closed in 2019, and 23andMe filed for bankruptcy in March 2025. When the named constraint has fallen by a factor of 100,000 and the category still dies, cost was not the binding constraint, and the board does not know what is.", "verdict": "unknown", "verdict_reason": "The named constraint crossed long ago and the category died anyway, so the rule abstains.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E1", "constraint": { "name": "Cost of sequencing (named, but not binding)", "detail": "Cost was the obvious blocker and it collapsed. Repeat purchase and clinical usefulness are the likelier blockers, and neither has a public metric." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Arivale", "founded": null, "died": 2019, "raised_usd_m": 50, "how": "Closed abruptly in April 2019, saying its service cost more than customers would pay", "source": "https://www.geekwire.com/2019/scientific-wellness-startup-arivale-closes-abruptly-tragic-end-vision-transform-personal-health/", "conf": "M", "raised_note": "about $50M or more" }, { "name": "23andMe", "founded": 2006, "died": 2025, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, March 2025", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/23andMe", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": { "label": "Cost to sequence a human genome (NHGRI, via Our World in Data)", "unit": "$", "now": [ "2022", 524.62 ], "then": [ "2015", 1245.31 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "consumer-home-robots", "name": "Consumer home robots", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/consumer-home-robots/", "question": "Are consumer home robots viable again after Anki and Jibo?", "answer": "Anki, maker of the Cozmo and Vector robots, went bankrupt in April 2019 after losing a critical funding round. Jibo, a social home robot co-founded in 2012, was also gone by then. Hardware with thin margins needs patient capital and a reason to keep using the robot after the novelty fades. Neither constraint has measurably moved.", "verdict": "nogo", "verdict_reason": "Neither the capital constraint nor the engagement problem has measurably changed.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E8", "constraint": { "name": "Hardware margins and lasting use", "detail": "Consumer robots sell on novelty, cost real money to build and support, and struggle to stay in daily use." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Anki", "founded": 2010, "died": 2019, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Bankrupt in April 2019 after losing a critical funding round", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anki_(American_company)", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "consumer-vr", "name": "Consumer virtual reality", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/consumer-vr/", "question": "Why did early virtual reality fail, and when did consumer VR become viable?", "answer": "VPL Research (1984), Jaron Lanier's company, sold the first commercial VR gloves and headsets; it went bankrupt in 1990 and its patents were later bought by Sun Microsystems. Rendering and displays cost tens of thousands of dollars. Oculus (2012) built a headset from phone-grade displays and gaming GPUs; Facebook bought it for about $2B in 2014.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Phone displays and consumer GPUs made a few-hundred-dollar headset possible in 2012.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E1", "constraint": { "name": "GPU and display cost", "detail": "Convincing VR needs high-resolution displays and fast rendering; both cost workstation money until smartphones and gaming GPUs." }, "crossing": { "date": "2012", "text": "Phone-panel displays and consumer GPUs make the Oculus Rift prototype possible." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "VPL Research", "founded": 1984, "died": 1990, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Bankruptcy, 1990; patents later sold to Sun Microsystems", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VPL_Research", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Oculus", "founded": 2012, "note": "acquired by Facebook for about $2B in 2014", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oculus_VR" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "cruise-robotaxi", "name": "Cruise (robotaxis)", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/cruise-robotaxi/", "question": "Was Cruise too early for robotaxis?", "answer": "Cruise, owned by GM, ran driverless rides in San Francisco until a 2023 crash and suspension; in December 2024 GM said it would stop funding robotaxi development. Through the same years Waymo ran paid driverless rides and expanded to more cities. A competitor scaling in the same window means the enabler had crossed.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Waymo ran and expanded paid driverless service in the same years.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Cruise", "founded": 2013, "died": 2024, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "GM ended robotaxi funding, December 2024", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cruise_(autonomous_vehicle)", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Waymo", "founded": 2009, "note": "paid driverless rides in several US cities", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "de-novo-protein-binders", "name": "AI protein binder design as a service", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/de-novo-protein-binders/", "question": "Is AI-designed protein binders as a service a viable business now?", "answer": "Computational protein design used to need screening labs because only a small share of designed binders worked. BindCraft, published in Nature in August 2025, reported one-shot designs with high experimental success rates against many targets, without high-throughput screening. The measured crossing is real; the open check is a named, funded graveyard.", "verdict": "check", "verdict_reason": "A peer-reviewed crossing exists; no named, funded graveyard yet.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E7", "constraint": { "name": "Experimental hit rate of designed binders", "detail": "When most designs fail, every project needs a screening facility; when most work, design becomes a service." }, "crossing": { "date": "2025-08-27", "text": "BindCraft published in Nature: one-shot binder design with high experimental success." }, "graveyard": [], "winners": [], "evidence": [ { "date": "2025-08-27", "text": "Pacesa et al., 'One-shot design of functional protein binders with BindCraft', Nature.", "source": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09429-6", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "digital-cash", "name": "Digital cash", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/digital-cash/", "question": "Why did DigiCash fail, and when did digital cash become viable?", "answer": "DigiCash (1989) built private, cryptographic electronic cash and filed for bankruptcy in 1998 after few banks adopted it. Its design needed a trusted issuer that banks would not become. Bitcoin (2009) removed the issuer with proof-of-work consensus, a protocol invention nobody could have scheduled; dollar stablecoins such as USDC (2018) later combined the two ideas.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Decentralised consensus (2009) removed the need for an issuing bank.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E9", "constraint": { "name": "Issuer-free consensus", "detail": "Digital cash needed someone to prevent double-spending; until 2009 that had to be a bank." }, "crossing": { "date": "2009", "text": "Bitcoin's network launches in January 2009." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "DigiCash", "founded": 1989, "died": 1998, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Bankruptcy, 1998", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DigiCash", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Bitcoin", "founded": 2009, "note": "proof-of-work consensus", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin" }, { "name": "USDC (Circle)", "founded": 2018, "note": "dollar stablecoin", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USD_Coin" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "display-less-ai-glasses-apps", "name": "Apps for AI camera glasses", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/display-less-ai-glasses-apps/", "question": "Is building apps for AI camera glasses ripe now?", "answer": "Camera glasses failed as a product for a decade; then EssilorLuxottica sold 7 million Meta glasses in 2025 alone. About 10 million units a year is roughly where third-party app ecosystems have appeared before, so the install base is close. The open check is the TiVo and Apollo trap: the platform owner controls the app channel and can take any category an app proves.", "verdict": "check", "verdict_reason": "The install base is growing fast; platform-owner capture is the unpriced risk.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E3", "constraint": { "name": "Install base, and access to it", "detail": "An app layer needs enough devices and an open channel to them; the platform owner decides the second." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "North (Focals)", "founded": 2012, "died": 2020, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Acquired by Google in June 2020; Focals discontinued", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/google-acquires-north-augmented-reality-glasses-start-up.html", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Ray-Ban Meta", "founded": 2023, "note": "the volume leader in camera glasses", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray-Ban_Meta" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2026-02", "text": "EssilorLuxottica: 7 million Ray-Ban and Oakley Meta smart glasses sold in 2025.", "source": "https://uploadvr.com/meta-essilorluxottica-sold-7-million-smart-glasses-in-2025/", "conf": "M" } ], "calls": [ "C19-glasses-open-app-channel" ], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "driverless-trucking", "name": "Driverless trucking", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/driverless-trucking/", "question": "Is driverless trucking viable again after Embark, Starsky and TuSimple?", "answer": "Starsky Robotics shut down in 2020, Embark Trucks wound down in 2023, and TuSimple closed its US business and later left trucking altogether. Aurora began running driverless trucks commercially in Texas in 2025. Federal rules for driverless trucks are still unsettled: FMCSA's rulemaking on automated commercial vehicles (RIN 2126-AC17) has no final rule. That rule is the trigger the board watches.", "verdict": "pending", "verdict_reason": "One operator runs driverless freight; the federal rule that would make it routine is not final.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E7+E5", "constraint": { "name": "Driverless reliability and federal operating rules", "detail": "The software must be safe without a driver, and federal trucking rules (inspections, warning devices) assume a human in the cab." }, "crossing": { "date": "pending", "text": "Final FMCSA rule for ADS-equipped commercial vehicles not yet published." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Starsky Robotics", "founded": 2016, "died": 2020, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Ceased operations in 2020 after failing to raise money", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starsky_Robotics", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "Embark Trucks", "founded": null, "died": 2023, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Wound down in March 2023, laying off 70% of staff, about 16 months after going public via SPAC", "source": "https://www.freightwaves.com/news/embark-trucks-laying-off-70-of-employees-winding-down-business", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "TuSimple (US trucking)", "founded": 2015, "died": 2024, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Closed its US business, then pivoted to AI gaming as CreateAI (December 2024)", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TuSimple", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Aurora Innovation", "founded": 2017, "note": "commercial driverless trucking in Texas from 2025", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora_Innovation" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2023-02-01", "text": "FMCSA notice on the Safe Integration of Automated Driving Systems-Equipped Commercial Motor Vehicles (RIN 2126-AC17).", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2023-02073", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "drone-delivery", "name": "Drone delivery (US)", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/drone-delivery/", "question": "Is drone delivery about to become viable in the US?", "answer": "US drone delivery has been capped by waivers: each operator needs FAA exemptions to fly beyond the pilot's line of sight. The FAA proposed Part 108 to make those flights routine in August 2025 (RIN 2120-AL82), and a June 2025 executive order told it to finish quickly. As of 25 October 2026 no final rule has been published, so the trigger is pending.", "verdict": "pending", "verdict_reason": "The enabling rule is proposed but not final. The board resolves its call automatically from the Federal Register.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E5", "constraint": { "name": "Routine beyond-visual-line-of-sight flight", "detail": "Without a standing rule, every delivery network needs case-by-case exemptions, which caps scale." }, "crossing": { "date": "pending", "text": "Final rule for 14 CFR part 108 (RIN 2120-AL82) not yet published." }, "graveyard": [], "winners": [ { "name": "Zipline", "founded": 2014, "note": "long-range medical and retail delivery, operating under FAA approvals", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zipline_(drone_delivery)" }, { "name": "Wing (Alphabet)", "founded": null, "note": "residential delivery under FAA approvals; first deliveries 2014", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wing_(company)" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2025-06-11", "text": "Executive Order 14307, Unleashing American Drone Dominance, directs the FAA to finalise BVLOS rules.", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2025-10814", "conf": "H" }, { "date": "2025-08-07", "text": "FAA and TSA propose 'Normalizing Unmanned Aircraft Systems Beyond Visual Line of Sight Operations' (new part 108).", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2025-14992", "conf": "H" }, { "date": "2026-01-28", "text": "FAA reopens the comment period on the BVLOS proposal.", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2026-01644", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [ "C12-faa-bvlos-final-rule" ], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "etoys", "name": "eToys", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/etoys/", "question": "Was eToys too early for online toy sales?", "answer": "eToys went public in 1999 at a multi-billion-dollar valuation and filed for bankruptcy in 2001. Amazon sold toys online through the same years, from 2000 in partnership with Toys \"R\" Us. Online toy retail worked; eToys' cost structure did not.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Amazon sold toys online through the same period.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "eToys", "founded": 1997, "died": 2001, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, March 2001", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EToys.com", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Amazon (toys)", "founded": 1999, "note": "toy store run with Toys \"R\" Us from 2000", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "evtol-air-taxis", "name": "Electric air taxis (eVTOL)", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/evtol-air-taxis/", "question": "Are electric air taxis viable after Lilium and Volocopter failed?", "answer": "The FAA finished its rules for powered-lift aircraft and pilots in late 2024, the regulatory piece air taxis had waited for. Within months Lilium entered insolvency and Volocopter filed for insolvency in December 2024. When the named blocker crosses and leading companies still fail, it was not the binding constraint; battery energy and certification cost are likelier, and the board abstains.", "verdict": "unknown", "verdict_reason": "The regulatory blocker crossed and leaders still failed, so the rule abstains.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E5+E1", "constraint": { "name": "Powered-lift rules (named, but not binding)", "detail": "The FAA powered-lift framework crossed in 2024; certification cost and battery energy density did not visibly move." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Lilium", "founded": 2015, "died": 2025, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Insolvency proceedings, late 2024 and again in 2025", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lilium_GmbH", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "Volocopter", "founded": 2011, "died": 2025, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Filed for insolvency, December 2024; assets sold in 2025", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volocopter", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "Kitty Hawk", "founded": 2010, "died": 2022, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Shut down, September 2022", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kitty_Hawk_Corporation", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Joby Aviation", "founded": 2009, "note": "in FAA type certification", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joby_Aviation" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2025-01-03", "text": "FAA final rule amendments: Integration of Powered-Lift: Pilot Certification and Operations.", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2024-30331", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "excite-at-home", "name": "Excite@Home", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/excite-at-home/", "question": "Was Excite@Home too early for broadband?", "answer": "@Home sold broadband internet over cable lines from 1996, acquired Excite in 1999 and filed for bankruptcy in 2001. The missing pieces, the cable lines, belonged to its distribution partners, who took broadband service in-house once it was proven. Broadband boomed; the middleman did not. That is enabler-owner capture.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "The cable operators owned the pipes and took the market.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Excite@Home", "founded": 1996, "died": 2001, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, 2001", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excite@Home", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Comcast (cable broadband)", "founded": 1963, "note": "ran broadband itself", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comcast" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "fast-checkout", "name": "Fast (one-click checkout)", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/fast-checkout/", "question": "Was Fast's one-click checkout too early?", "answer": "Fast raised over $120M for one-click checkout and shut down in April 2022; its 2021 revenue was reported at about $600,000. One-click buying already existed at scale through Amazon and Shopify's Shop Pay. Nothing was missing from the market; Fast was missing distribution.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Shop Pay and Amazon already offered one-click checkout at scale.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Fast", "founded": null, "died": 2022, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Shut down in April 2022 after raising over $120M; reported 2021 revenue was about $600K", "source": "https://www.npr.org/2022/04/05/1091077398/checkout-startup-fast-is-shutting-down-after-burning-through-investors-money", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Shop Pay (Shopify)", "founded": 2017, "note": "accelerated checkout across Shopify stores", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shopify" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "friendster", "name": "Friendster", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/friendster/", "question": "Was Friendster too early?", "answer": "Friendster (2002) pioneered the modern social network and grew to millions of users, but its pages slowed to a crawl as it grew. MySpace (2003) scaled past it in the same years, on the same broadband, and won. When a competitor succeeds at the same time with the same enablers, the enabler existed: this was execution.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "MySpace succeeded in the same window with the same technology.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Friendster", "founded": 2002, "died": 2015, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Lost US users to MySpace by 2005; shut in 2015", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendster", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "MySpace", "founded": 2003, "note": "passed 100 million accounts", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myspace" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "implantable-bci", "name": "Implantable brain-computer interfaces", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/implantable-bci/", "question": "Are implantable brain-computer interfaces close to approval for patients?", "answer": "Cyberkinetics took the BrainGate implant into its first human trial and sold off its BrainGate business and assets in 2008-2009 without a path to market. Synchron, Neuralink, Paradromics and Precision Neuroscience now have implants in human studies. The dated trigger is a pivotal trial, the last step before FDA approval; the board watches ClinicalTrials.gov for one.", "verdict": "pending", "verdict_reason": "Early feasibility studies are running; no pivotal trial is registered yet.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E5", "constraint": { "name": "A regulatory path for permanent implants", "detail": "A BCI needs proof of long-term safety and benefit in a pivotal trial before premarket approval; feasibility studies are not enough." }, "crossing": { "date": "pending", "text": "First pivotal trial of a permanent BCI implant registered." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Cyberkinetics Neurotechnology Systems", "founded": null, "died": 2009, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Sold its BrainGate business and other assets in 2008-2009", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberkinetics", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Synchron", "founded": null, "note": "endovascular implant; completed the COMMAND early feasibility study", "source": "https://www.massdevice.com/synchron-command-study-results-stentrode-bci-implant/" }, { "name": "Neuralink", "founded": 2016, "note": "implant in human studies since 2024", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [ "C18-bci-pivotal-trial" ], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "indoor-vertical-farming", "name": "Indoor vertical farming", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/indoor-vertical-farming/", "question": "Is indoor vertical farming viable again?", "answer": "AeroFarms, AppHarvest, Bowery, Plenty and Kalera raised billions and filed for bankruptcy or shut down in 2023-25. Lighting a crop indoors costs electricity the sun gives a field for free, so the model needs power to get much cheaper. US retail electricity has risen instead: the BLS city average went from about 13 cents per kWh in 2019 to about 20 cents in 2026.", "verdict": "nogo", "verdict_reason": "The killing input, electricity, got more expensive. Waiting makes it worse.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E1", "constraint": { "name": "Electricity price versus free sunlight", "detail": "Indoor farms replace sunlight with LEDs; the business closes only if power costs fall far enough to beat field-grown produce." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "AeroFarms", "founded": 2004, "died": 2023, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, June 2023; emerged smaller in September 2023", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroFarms", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "AppHarvest", "founded": 2017, "died": 2023, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, July 2023; greenhouses sold off", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AppHarvest", "conf": "M", "note": "greenhouses rather than vertical racks" }, { "name": "Bowery Farming", "founded": 2015, "died": 2024, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Shut down, November 2024", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowery_Farming", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "Plenty", "founded": null, "died": 2025, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, March 2025", "source": "https://producebluebook.com/2025/03/24/plenty-files-chapter-11-receives-20-7mm-in-debtor-financing", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "Kalera", "founded": null, "died": 2023, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, April 2023; assets later sold", "source": "https://www.thepacker.com/news/packer-tech/vertical-farmer-kalera-files-chapter-11-bankruptcy", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [], "calls": [ "C15-electricity-keeps-rising" ], "metric": { "label": "Average US retail electricity price, city average (BLS, via FRED)", "unit": "$/kWh", "now": [ "2026-09-01", 0.196 ], "then": [ "2019-12-01", 0.133 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "juicero", "name": "Juicero", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/juicero/", "question": "Was Juicero too early?", "answer": "Juicero raised $120M for an internet-connected juice press priced at $699, later $399, that squeezed proprietary packs. In 2017 reporters showed the packs could be squeezed by hand about as well, and the company shut down that September. No future enabler fixes a product the customer does not need.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "The packs could be squeezed by hand; no enabler fixes that.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Juicero", "founded": 2013, "died": 2017, "raised_usd_m": 120, "how": "Shut down, September 2017", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juicero", "conf": "M", "raised_note": "$120M of venture capital" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "lfp-batteries", "name": "LFP battery cells", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/lfp-batteries/", "question": "Why did A123 Systems go bankrupt, and when did LFP batteries become viable?", "answer": "A123 Systems (2001) commercialised lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells, went public in 2009 and received a $249M federal grant, then filed for bankruptcy in October 2012 when electric-car demand lagged. CATL (2011) scaled LFP into the EV boom. World EV sales went from tens of thousands in 2011 to millions a year.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "EV volume crossed the scale cell makers needed in the mid-2010s.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E3", "constraint": { "name": "Electric-vehicle production volume", "detail": "Cell factories need volume to reach their costs; in 2012 there were not enough EVs to fill them." }, "crossing": { "date": "2015", "text": "World EV sales pass about half a million a year (IEA via OWID)." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "A123 Systems", "founded": 2001, "died": 2012, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, October 2012; assets bought by Wanxiang", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A123_Systems", "conf": "M", "raised_note": "included a 2009 IPO and a $249M US grant" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "CATL", "founded": 2011, "note": "the largest EV battery maker; major LFP supplier", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CATL" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": { "label": "Electric cars sold worldwide per year (IEA, via Our World in Data)", "unit": "cars", "now": [ "2025", 21200000.0 ], "then": [ "2012", 119000.0 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "meal-kits", "name": "Blue Apron (meal kits)", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/meal-kits/", "question": "Was Blue Apron too early for meal kits?", "answer": "Blue Apron went public in 2017 and was sold to Wonder in 2023 for about $103M, a fraction of its IPO value. HelloFresh sold meal kits in the same markets over the same years and became the category leader. Meal kits worked; one company's customer economics did not.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "HelloFresh grew in the same market over the same years.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Blue Apron", "founded": 2012, "died": 2023, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Sold to Wonder for about $103M in 2023", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Apron", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "HelloFresh", "founded": 2011, "note": "the largest meal-kit company", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HelloFresh" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "music-lockers", "name": "Cloud music lockers", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/music-lockers/", "question": "Why did MP3.com's cloud music locker fail, and when did lockers become viable?", "answer": "MP3.com's My.MP3.com (2000) let people stream CDs they already owned from the internet. The labels sued, a federal court ruled against MP3.com in 2000, and Vivendi bought the company in 2001. The same product returned in 2011 as iTunes Match and Google Music, this time with label licences.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Licensed lockers launched in 2011, eleven years after the lawsuit.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E5", "constraint": { "name": "Label licences for cloud copies", "detail": "Storing one copy per song for many users was ruled infringing without a licence." }, "crossing": { "date": "2011", "text": "iTunes Match and Google Music launch with label deals." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "MP3.com", "founded": 1997, "died": 2001, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Lost UMG v. MP3.com (2000); acquired by Vivendi Universal in 2001", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MP3.com", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "iTunes Match (Apple)", "founded": 2011, "note": "licensed cloud locker", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITunes_Match" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2000", "text": "UMG Recordings, Inc. v. MP3.com, Inc. (S.D.N.Y. 2000) found My.MP3.com infringing.", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UMG_Recordings,_Inc._v._MP3.com,_Inc.", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "music-streaming", "name": "Licensed music streaming", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/music-streaming/", "question": "Why did Napster fail, and when did music streaming become viable?", "answer": "Napster (1999) proved that tens of millions of people wanted any song, instantly. Courts shut it down in 2001 because it had no licences. Spotify (2006) waited for licences: it launched in Sweden in 2008 and in the US in July 2011 after deals with the major labels. The binding constraint was legal permission, not technology.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Label licences for on-demand streaming arrived 2008-2011; Spotify launched as they did.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E5", "constraint": { "name": "Label licences for on-demand streaming", "detail": "The technology worked in 1999; the right to stream the catalogue did not exist." }, "crossing": { "date": "2011", "text": "Spotify signs the major US labels and launches in the US in July 2011." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Napster", "founded": 1999, "died": 2001, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Shut by court injunction, July 2001 (A&M Records v. Napster)", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napster", "conf": "H" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Spotify", "founded": 2006, "note": "Sweden 2008, US July 2011", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2001", "text": "The Ninth Circuit upheld the injunction in A&M Records, Inc. v. Napster, Inc. (2001).", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A%26M_Records,_Inc._v._Napster,_Inc.", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "myspace", "name": "MySpace", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/myspace/", "question": "Was MySpace too early?", "answer": "MySpace launched before Facebook opened to the public, passed 100 million accounts, and was bought by News Corp for $580M in 2005. It lost to Facebook head-to-head on the same broadband and the same browsers and was sold for about $35M in 2011. Same date, same enablers, different outcome: not timing.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Facebook won in the same years with the same enablers.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "MySpace", "founded": 2003, "died": 2011, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Sold by News Corp for about $35M in 2011, after a $580M purchase in 2005", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myspace", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Facebook", "founded": 2004, "note": "overtook MySpace in 2008", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "obesity-care-generic-semaglutide", "name": "Obesity care on generic semaglutide (outside the US)", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/obesity-care-generic-semaglutide/", "question": "Is obesity care built on generic semaglutide viable outside the US?", "answer": "Weight-loss drugs before GLP-1s failed commercially: Orexigen filed for Chapter 11 in 2018 and Vivus in 2020. Semaglutide works, at branded prices. Its compound patent protection lapses during 2026 in several large markets, including India, Canada, China, Brazil and Turkey. Whether secondary patents delay real generic launches there is the check, and call C1 is on the ledger.", "verdict": "check", "verdict_reason": "The compound patents lapse in 2026; the secondary-patent thicket check has not been run.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E5", "constraint": { "name": "Drug price, set by patent protection", "detail": "Care built around a drug only works at scale when the drug is cheap; that depends on the last blocking patent, not the headline expiry." }, "crossing": { "date": "2026", "text": "Semaglutide compound protection lapses in several large markets (2026-08-01 research)." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Orexigen Therapeutics", "founded": 2002, "died": 2018, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, March 2018 (Contrave)", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orexigen_Therapeutics", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "Vivus", "founded": null, "died": 2020, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Filed for bankruptcy protection in 2020 (Qsymia)", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivus_Inc.", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [ { "date": "2016-12", "text": "Humira precedent: the compound patent expired in 2016 but US biosimilars launched only in January 2023, after secondary patents and settlements.", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adalimumab", "conf": "M" } ], "calls": [ "C1-sema-thicket" ], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "on-demand-local-delivery", "name": "On-demand local delivery", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/on-demand-local-delivery/", "question": "Why did Kozmo.com fail, and when did on-demand delivery become viable?", "answer": "Kozmo.com promised one-hour delivery of almost anything in 1998, raised about $250M and shut down in April 2001. DoorDash (2013) and Postmates (2011) ran the same idea with GPS dispatch to contractors paid per delivery, on phones. The binding constraint was the cost of dispatching couriers, and it crossed with smartphones.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Smartphone GPS dispatch and gig couriers arrived around 2011-2013; the winners were founded inside that window.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E3+E4", "constraint": { "name": "Smartphone GPS dispatch and gig labour", "detail": "Kozmo employed couriers and ran warehouses; per-delivery contractors routed by phone turned a fixed cost into a variable one." }, "crossing": { "date": "2012", "text": "Smartphones pass 45% of US adults; app-based gig work scales." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Kozmo.com", "founded": 1998, "died": 2001, "raised_usd_m": 250, "how": "Shut down, April 2001", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kozmo.com", "conf": "M", "raised_note": "about $250M, as widely reported" }, { "name": "Urbanfetch", "founded": 1999, "died": 2000, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Shut its consumer delivery service in 2000", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanfetch", "conf": "L" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "DoorDash", "founded": 2013, "note": "contractor couriers dispatched by app; IPO 2020", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DoorDash" }, { "name": "Postmates", "founded": 2011, "note": "acquired by Uber in 2020", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postmates" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2013-05", "text": "Pew: 56% of US adults own a smartphone.", "source": "https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [], "metric": { "label": "US adults who own a smartphone (Pew Research Center)", "unit": "%", "now": [ "2026-06", 91.0 ], "then": [ "2011-05", 35.0 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "online-grocery-delivery", "name": "Online grocery delivery", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/online-grocery-delivery/", "question": "Why did Webvan fail, and when did online grocery become viable?", "answer": "Webvan built its own automated warehouses and truck fleet, lost over $800M, and filed for bankruptcy in July 2001. The business that later worked, Instacart (2012), owned neither: it sent gig shoppers to existing stores, dispatched by smartphone. The missing piece was a cheap way to dispatch labour, not demand.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Smartphone ownership passed 45% of US adults in 2012, the year Instacart was founded.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E3+E4", "constraint": { "name": "Smartphone dispatch and gig labour", "detail": "Without phones in shoppers' and drivers' pockets, delivery needed owned warehouses and salaried drivers: fixed costs that grocery margins could not cover." }, "crossing": { "date": "2012", "text": "Smartphone ownership passes 45% of US adults (Pew); gig labour supply at scale." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Webvan", "founded": 1996, "died": 2001, "raised_usd_m": 800, "how": "Filed for bankruptcy in July 2001 and laid off 2,000 staff", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Webvan", "conf": "M", "raised_note": "lost over $800M" }, { "name": "HomeGrocer", "founded": 1997, "died": 2000, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Merged into Webvan in 2000, months before Webvan failed", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HomeGrocer", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Instacart", "founded": 2012, "note": "dispatches gig shoppers to existing stores; IPO 2023", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instacart" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "1989", "text": "Peapod started home grocery delivery in 1989 and survived the dot-com crash at small scale inside a grocer (Ahold), so demand was real; the cost structure was the problem.", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peapod", "conf": "M" }, { "date": "2012-04", "text": "Pew: 46% of US adults own a smartphone, up from 35% a year earlier.", "source": "https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [], "metric": { "label": "US adults who own a smartphone (Pew Research Center)", "unit": "%", "now": [ "2026-06", 91.0 ], "then": [ "2011-05", 35.0 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "online-used-cars", "name": "Shift and Vroom (online used cars)", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/online-used-cars/", "question": "Were online used-car retailers like Shift and Vroom too early?", "answer": "Shift filed for bankruptcy in October 2023 and Vroom shut its e-commerce business in January 2024. Carvana sold used cars online through the same years, survived a near-death 2022-23, and grew again. Same market, same date: not a timing failure.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Carvana sold cars online through the same period and grew.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Shift Technologies", "founded": 2013, "died": 2023, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, October 2023", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shift_Technologies_(online_marketplace)", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "Vroom (e-commerce)", "founded": 2013, "died": 2024, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Wound down its e-commerce operations, January 2024", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vroom_(company)", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Carvana", "founded": 2012, "note": "online used-car retail", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carvana" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "online-video", "name": "Online video", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/online-video/", "question": "Why did early internet TV like Pseudo.com fail, and when did online video become viable?", "answer": "Pseudo.com (1993) ran internet TV channels in the late 1990s; its parent went bankrupt after the dot-com crash and its assets were sold in 2001. Most US homes were still on dial-up. YouTube (2005) launched as broadband passed 17 lines per 100 people and browser video (Flash) worked without a download; Google bought it in 2006 for $1.65B.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Broadband passed 17 per 100 in 2005, the year YouTube launched.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E2", "constraint": { "name": "Broadband and in-browser video", "detail": "Video over dial-up was a postage stamp that buffered; it needed broadband and a player that just worked." }, "crossing": { "date": "2005", "text": "US broadband reaches 17 per 100 (World Bank); Flash video plays in the browser." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Pseudo.com", "founded": 1993, "died": 2001, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Parent company went bankrupt after the dot-com crash; assets sold to INTV in 2001", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudo.com", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "YouTube", "founded": 2005, "note": "acquired by Google for $1.65B in 2006", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YouTube" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": { "label": "Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people, United States (ITU via World Bank)", "unit": "per 100", "now": [ "2024", 38.8571729185246 ], "then": [ "2000", 2.51164212166547 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "pets-com", "name": "Pets.com", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/pets-com/", "question": "Was Pets.com too early for online pet supplies?", "answer": "Pets.com went public in February 2000 and liquidated in November 2000. It sold heavy, low-margin goods below cost and paid to ship them. Chewy (2011) sold the same products online without any technology that was missing in 2000, and PetSmart bought it for $3.35B in 2017. No enabler crossed in between; the economics were the problem.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Chewy needed no technology that Pets.com lacked.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Pets.com", "founded": 1998, "died": 2000, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Liquidated, November 2000", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pets.com", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Chewy", "founded": 2011, "note": "acquired by PetSmart for $3.35B in 2017", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chewy_(company)" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "population-genomics", "name": "Population genomics", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/population-genomics/", "question": "Why did deCODE genetics go bankrupt, and when did genome sequencing get cheap enough?", "answer": "deCODE (1996) set out to read the genetics of a nation, Iceland. It filed for Chapter 11 in 2009 and Amgen bought it in 2012 for $415M. NHGRI measured the cost of sequencing a genome at about $95M in 2001, about $70,000 in 2009 and a few hundred dollars by 2022. 23andMe (2006) built a consumer business on the same curve, then filed for bankruptcy itself in 2025.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Sequencing cost collapsed after 2008; population genomics became routine.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E1", "constraint": { "name": "Cost of reading DNA", "detail": "At millions of dollars per genome, population-scale genetics could not pay back." }, "crossing": { "date": "2008", "text": "Next-generation sequencing cuts NHGRI's cost per genome from $7.1M (2007) to $342,500 (2008)." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "deCODE genetics", "founded": 1996, "died": 2009, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, November 2009; acquired by Amgen for $415M in 2012", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeCODE_genetics", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "23andMe", "founded": 2006, "note": "consumer genotyping; filed for Chapter 11 in March 2025", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/23andMe" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2025-03", "text": "23andMe filed for Chapter 11: a formed category is not the same as a durable company.", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/23andMe", "conf": "M" } ], "calls": [], "metric": { "label": "Cost to sequence a human genome (NHGRI, via Our World in Data)", "unit": "$", "now": [ "2022", 524.62 ], "then": [ "2009", 70333.33 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "prescription-digital-therapeutics", "name": "Prescription digital therapeutics", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/prescription-digital-therapeutics/", "question": "Are prescription digital therapeutics viable again after Pear Therapeutics went bankrupt?", "answer": "Pear Therapeutics had FDA-authorised apps that doctors prescribed, and filed for bankruptcy in April 2023, saying payers would not reimburse them. Medicare had no code to pay for prescription software. CMS created three: HCPCS G0552-G0554 for digital mental health treatment devices took effect on 1 January 2025, 21 months after Pear filed.", "verdict": "ripe", "verdict_reason": "The payment code that was missing took effect 1 January 2025, and three funded companies died proving demand.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E5", "constraint": { "name": "A Medicare payment code for prescription software", "detail": "A doctor could prescribe an FDA-authorised app, but Medicare had no billing code for supplying it or managing the patient on it." }, "crossing": { "date": "2025-01-01", "text": "CY 2025 Physician Fee Schedule final rule: HCPCS G0552, G0553, G0554 for digital mental health treatment devices." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Pear Therapeutics", "founded": null, "died": 2023, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, 7 April 2023, with a plan to sell its assets", "source": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1835567/000183556723000020/peartherapeuticsfilesforch.htm", "conf": "H" }, { "name": "Akili", "founded": null, "died": 2024, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Sold to Virtual Therapeutics for about $34M in July 2024, after struggling to win insurance coverage", "source": "https://www.mddionline.com/augmented-virtual-reality/akili-to-go-private-through-merger-with-virtual-therapeutics", "conf": "M", "note": "valued at about $1B at its 2022 SPAC listing" }, { "name": "Better Therapeutics", "founded": null, "died": 2024, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Shut down operations and terminated employees, March 2024", "source": "https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/digital-diabetes-app-maker-better-therapeutics-shutters-operations-lays-staff", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [ { "date": "2024-12-09", "text": "CMS publishes the CY 2025 Physician Fee Schedule final rule creating G0552-G0554, effective 1 January 2025.", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2024-25382", "conf": "H" }, { "date": "2025-11-05", "text": "The CY 2026 Physician Fee Schedule final rule addresses the same codes again.", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2025-19787", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [ "C14-medicare-dmht-codes-2027" ], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "qr-codes", "name": "Scan-to-web codes", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/qr-codes/", "question": "Why did the CueCat fail, and when did scanning real-world codes become viable?", "answer": "Digital:Convergence gave away millions of CueCat barcode scanners in 2000 so readers could jump from print to web pages, and shut down in 2001. Readers had to be at a computer with a cable. The idea returned once cameras were in most pockets and iOS 11 (2017) read QR codes natively in the camera app.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Camera phones in three-quarters of pockets and native QR reading (2017) made scanning effortless.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E3", "constraint": { "name": "A scanner in every pocket", "detail": "Scanning only works if the reader is already in your hand when you see the code." }, "crossing": { "date": "2017", "text": "iOS 11 adds native QR scanning to the camera; US smartphone ownership 77%." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Digital:Convergence (CueCat)", "founded": null, "died": 2001, "raised_usd_m": 185, "how": "Defunct by the end of 2001", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CueCat", "conf": "M", "raised_note": "$185M invested in total" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Native QR scanning (iOS 11, Android)", "founded": 2017, "note": "QR codes became the default link between print and web", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QR_code" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": { "label": "US adults who own a smartphone (Pew Research Center)", "unit": "%", "now": [ "2026-06", 91.0 ], "then": [ "2011-05", 35.0 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "quibi", "name": "Quibi", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/quibi/", "question": "Was Quibi too early for short-form premium video?", "answer": "Quibi raised about $1.75B, launched paid, phone-only short shows in April 2020 and shut down in December 2020. In the same months free short video on TikTok and YouTube grew fast. Mobile video, bandwidth and demand all existed; a paid, unshareable, Hollywood-cost version of it was wrong at any date.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Free short video boomed in the same months.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Quibi", "founded": 2018, "died": 2020, "raised_usd_m": 1750, "how": "Shut down, December 2020", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quibi", "conf": "M", "raised_note": "about $1.75B" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "TikTok", "founded": 2016, "note": "free short video; grew fastest in 2020", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "satellite-broadband", "name": "Low-orbit satellite broadband", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/satellite-broadband/", "question": "Why did Teledesic fail, and when did low-orbit satellite internet become viable?", "answer": "Teledesic (1990), backed by Craig McCaw and Bill Gates, planned hundreds of low-orbit satellites for global internet and suspended work in 2002. At Space Shuttle-era launch prices, about $54,500 per kilogram by NASA's estimate, a constellation could not pay back. Falcon 9 advertised about $2,720/kg; SpaceX started Starlink in 2015.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Reusable-era launch prices fell about 20x; Starlink followed.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E1", "constraint": { "name": "Launch cost per kilogram", "detail": "A broadband constellation needs thousands of satellites replaced every few years; launch cost decides whether it pays." }, "crossing": { "date": "2010", "text": "Falcon 9 first flight; advertised price about $2,720/kg to LEO." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Teledesic", "founded": 1990, "died": 2002, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Suspended satellite construction in 2002", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teledesic", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Starlink (SpaceX)", "founded": 2015, "note": "constellation programme announced 2015; service from 2020", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2018", "text": "NASA: the Space Shuttle cost about $54,500/kg to LEO; Falcon 9 advertises $2,720/kg, a factor of 20.", "source": "https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20200001093", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [], "metric": { "label": "Cost to launch one kilogram to low Earth orbit (NASA estimate, 2018)", "unit": "$/kg", "now": [ "2010", 2720.0 ], "then": [ "1981", 54500.0 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "satellite-phones", "name": "Satellite phones", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/satellite-phones/", "question": "Why did Iridium go bankrupt, and what changed for satellite communications?", "answer": "Iridium, spun out of Motorola, launched a 66-satellite network for phone calls anywhere and filed for bankruptcy in August 1999, nine months after service began, with billions invested. Handsets were bulky and calls expensive. Investors bought the network out of bankruptcy for $25M in 2001, erasing over $4B of debt; it still operates, which is the signature of an idea that was early rather than wrong.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "The network outlived its financing; cheaper launch and smaller radios made satellite service a business.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E1", "constraint": { "name": "Launch cost and handset size", "detail": "The network cost billions to build and launch, and early handsets were large and expensive." }, "crossing": { "date": "2010", "text": "Commercial launch prices fall about 20x (NASA estimate)." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Iridium SSC", "founded": null, "died": 1999, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, August 1999, nine months after service began; sold for $25M in 2001", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iridium_Communications", "conf": "M", "raised_note": "over $4B of debt erased in the sale" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Iridium Communications", "founded": 2000, "note": "the same network, bought out of bankruptcy", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iridium_Communications" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2010", "text": "Falcon 9 first flight; NASA later estimated its advertised price at $2,720/kg.", "source": "https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20200001093", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [], "metric": { "label": "Cost to launch one kilogram to low Earth orbit (NASA estimate, 2018)", "unit": "$/kg", "now": [ "2010", 2720.0 ], "then": [ "1981", 54500.0 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "scooter-sharing", "name": "Bird (scooter sharing)", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/scooter-sharing/", "question": "Was Bird too early for scooter sharing?", "answer": "Bird grew faster than almost any startup in 2018 and filed for bankruptcy in December 2023. Its rival Lime ran the same dockless scooters in the same cities and reported a profitable year in 2023. Same product, same cities, same years: the difference was execution and cost, not timing.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Lime ran the same model in the same years and reached profitability.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Bird", "founded": 2017, "died": 2023, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, December 2023", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird_Global", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Lime", "founded": 2017, "note": "dockless scooters and bikes", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lime_(transportation_company)" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "segway", "name": "Segway", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/segway/", "question": "Was Segway too early for personal transport?", "answer": "Segway launched in 2001 with predictions it would reshape cities, sold far fewer units than hoped, and in June 2020 its maker said it would stop making the original. Short urban trips did go electric, but through cheap shared kick scooters (2017 onward), a different product and model. Being right about the need is not being early with the product.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Short trips went electric through a different, cheaper product.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Segway PT", "founded": 2001, "died": 2020, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Its maker announced the end of Segway PT production in June 2020", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Segway", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Shared e-scooters (Lime and others)", "founded": 2017, "note": "dockless shared scooters", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lime_(transportation_company)" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "smartphones", "name": "Smartphones (pocket communicators)", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/smartphones/", "question": "Why did General Magic fail, and when did the smartphone become viable?", "answer": "General Magic (1990) designed a pocket communicator with apps, email and software agents. Its Magic Cap devices shipped in 1994 and sold poorly; the company ceased operations in 2002 and was liquidated in 2004. The parts it needed (capacitive multitouch, efficient ARM chips, 3G data) arrived together around 2007, the year the iPhone launched; General Magic alumni helped build both the iPhone and Android.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Multitouch, low-power ARM chips and 3G converged in 2007.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E3", "constraint": { "name": "Multitouch, low-power chips and mobile data", "detail": "1994 hardware could not run a pocket computer with a usable screen, a full day of battery and a data connection." }, "crossing": { "date": "2007", "text": "iPhone ships with capacitive multitouch on an ARM system-on-chip; 3G networks spread." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "General Magic", "founded": 1990, "died": 2002, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Ceased operations in September 2002; liquidated in 2004", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Magic", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "iPhone (Apple)", "founded": 2007, "note": "launched June 2007", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone_(1st_generation)" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2008", "text": "Android (co-founded by General Magic alumnus Andy Rubin) shipped its first phone in 2008.", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Rubin", "conf": "M" } ], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "social-networking", "name": "Social networking", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/social-networking/", "question": "Why did SixDegrees fail, and when did social networks become viable?", "answer": "SixDegrees.com (1997) had the social graph first: profiles, friend lists and messaging. It was sold in 1999 and shut in 2001. Few people had broadband or digital photos, so there was little to share and slow pages to share it on. Friendster, MySpace and Facebook (2002-2004) arrived as US broadband passed 7-13 lines per 100 people.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Broadband and digital photos crossed around 2003; three social networks launched within two years.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E2", "constraint": { "name": "Broadband and digital photo upload", "detail": "A social network is mostly photos and frequent visits; on dial-up neither works." }, "crossing": { "date": "2003", "text": "US fixed broadband passes 9 lines per 100 people (World Bank); digital cameras go mainstream." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "SixDegrees.com", "founded": 1997, "died": 2001, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Sold to YouthStream Media for $125M in 1999; shut in 2001", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SixDegrees.com", "conf": "M", "raised_note": "exit price $125M (1999)" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Facebook", "founded": 2004, "note": "launched at Harvard in February 2004", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2003", "text": "MySpace launched in 2003 and grew past 100 million accounts; the enabler was in place before Facebook.", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myspace", "conf": "M" } ], "calls": [], "metric": { "label": "Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people, United States (ITU via World Bank)", "unit": "per 100", "now": [ "2024", 38.8571729185246 ], "then": [ "2001", 4.50008028890173 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "software-freight-brokerage", "name": "Software freight brokerage", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/software-freight-brokerage/", "question": "Is digital freight brokerage viable again after Convoy shut down?", "answer": "Convoy automated truckload brokerage, raised hundreds of millions of dollars, and shut down in late 2023 during a long freight recession; Flexport bought its assets. The killer was the rate cycle, not the software. The board tracks the BLS producer price index for long-distance truckload freight; it rose about 18% between March and September 2026.", "verdict": "pending", "verdict_reason": "Rates are recovering; the call on whether the recovery holds resolves from BLS data in 2027.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E8", "constraint": { "name": "The truckload rate cycle", "detail": "Brokers earn the spread between shipper and carrier rates; in a long freight recession the spread and volume both collapse." }, "crossing": { "date": "pending", "text": "Sustained recovery in truckload rates (resolves from BLS data)." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Convoy", "founded": 2015, "died": 2023, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Shut down in late 2023; assets and some staff acquired by Flexport", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convoy_(company)", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [ { "date": "2024-11-20", "text": "FMCSA proposes 'Transparency in Property Broker Transactions' (RIN 2126-AC63).", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2024-27115", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [ "C16-truckload-recovery-holds" ], "metric": { "label": "Producer price index: long-distance general freight trucking, truckload (BLS, via FRED)", "unit": "index", "now": [ "2026-09-01", 219.384 ], "then": [ "2023-10-01", 184.002 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "solyndra", "name": "Solyndra", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/solyndra/", "question": "Was Solyndra too early for solar?", "answer": "Solyndra made cylindrical thin-film panels that only beat conventional silicon panels while polysilicon was expensive. Polysilicon prices then collapsed, conventional panels got cheaper, and Solyndra filed for bankruptcy in September 2011 despite a $535M federal loan guarantee. Solar went on to boom using the technology it bet against. Waiting made it worse, the inverse of too early.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Its edge required a rival input to stay expensive; it got cheaper.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E1", "constraint": { "name": "Bet that polysilicon stays expensive", "detail": "An advantage that depends on a competitor's input staying costly disappears when that input gets cheap." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Solyndra", "founded": 2005, "died": 2011, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Chapter 11, September 2011", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solyndra", "conf": "H", "raised_note": "plus a $535M federal loan guarantee" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "starship-priced-space", "name": "Businesses priced off Starship launch costs", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/starship-priced-space/", "question": "Can you build a space business priced off Starship's launch costs yet?", "answer": "Many space business plans assume launch below $200 per kilogram once Starship flies commercially. That is a target, not a price anyone can buy today. The last measured step was Falcon 9, which NASA put at about $2,720/kg advertised. Until third parties buy Starship launches at a published price, a plan priced off it is priced off a forecast.", "verdict": "nogo", "verdict_reason": "No one can buy launch at the assumed price yet; announced is not measured.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E1", "constraint": { "name": "Measured, purchasable launch price", "detail": "Vendor targets lead measured prices by years; only a price third parties pay counts as a crossing." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [], "winners": [], "evidence": [ { "date": "2018", "text": "NASA estimate: Falcon 9 advertised $2,720/kg to LEO.", "source": "https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20200001093", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [], "metric": { "label": "Cost to launch one kilogram to low Earth orbit (NASA estimate, 2018)", "unit": "$/kg", "now": [ "2010", 2720.0 ], "then": [ "1981", 54500.0 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "supersonic-passenger-flight", "name": "Supersonic passenger flight", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/supersonic-passenger-flight/", "question": "Is supersonic passenger flight viable again now the US overland ban may be lifted?", "answer": "Concorde retired in 2003 and Aerion Supersonic shut down in 2021 after failing to raise production money. Since 1973 US rules have banned civil supersonic flight over land, which removes most routes. A June 2025 executive order told the FAA to lift the ban, and the FAA proposed doing so on 2 July 2026 (RIN 2120-AM15). A final rule is the trigger.", "verdict": "pending", "verdict_reason": "The rule that would reopen overland routes is proposed, not final.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E5", "constraint": { "name": "US ban on civil supersonic flight over land", "detail": "14 CFR 91.817 limits civil aircraft to below Mach 1 over the US, so a supersonic jet can only fly fast over water." }, "crossing": { "date": "pending", "text": "FAA proposed rule 'Enabling Supersonic Overland Flight' (2 July 2026); final rule not yet published." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Aerion Supersonic", "founded": 2003, "died": 2021, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Shut down in May 2021 after failing to secure production funding", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerion", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "Concorde (BAC/Aerospatiale)", "founded": 1976, "died": 2003, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Retired in 2003", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde", "conf": "H", "note": "state-backed programme, not a startup" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Boom Supersonic", "founded": 2014, "note": "developing the Overture airliner", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boom_Technology" } ], "evidence": [ { "date": "2025-06-11", "text": "Executive Order 14304, Leading the World in Supersonic Flight, directs the FAA to repeal the overland ban.", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2025-10800", "conf": "H" }, { "date": "2026-07-02", "text": "FAA proposed rule 'Enabling Supersonic Overland Flight' (RIN 2120-AM15).", "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2026-13440", "conf": "H" } ], "calls": [ "C13-supersonic-final-rule" ], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "tablets", "name": "Tablet computers", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/tablets/", "question": "Why did GO Corporation's pen computers fail, and when did tablets become viable?", "answer": "GO Corporation (1987) built PenPoint, an operating system for pen tablets, and was sold to AT&T in 1994 before being shut down. Pen recognition, weight and battery life were not good enough for a general computer. The iPad (2010) used capacitive multitouch, an ARM chip and a lithium-ion battery: the stack the iPhone had just proved.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "The iPhone's multitouch and ARM stack (2007) made the iPad (2010) possible.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E3", "constraint": { "name": "Touch input and battery life", "detail": "Pen recognition of the early 1990s was error-prone, and the hardware was heavy with short battery life." }, "crossing": { "date": "2007", "text": "Capacitive multitouch and ARM SoCs proven in phones." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "GO Corporation", "founded": 1987, "died": 1994, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Sold to AT&T in 1994, then shut down", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GO_Corporation", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "iPad (Apple)", "founded": 2010, "note": "launched April 2010", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPad_(1st_generation)" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "theranos", "name": "Theranos", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/theranos/", "question": "Was Theranos too early for finger-prick blood testing?", "answer": "Theranos claimed to run hundreds of tests from a finger-prick of blood, raised hundreds of millions of dollars, and dissolved in 2018. The claims were false; its founder was convicted of fraud in 2022. Calling it 'too early' treats a fraud as a forecast.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "The core claims were false; the founder was convicted of fraud.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Theranos", "founded": 2003, "died": 2018, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Dissolved in 2018; founder convicted of fraud in 2022", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theranos", "conf": "H" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "third-party-api-clients", "name": "Third-party clients on someone else's platform", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/third-party-api-clients/", "question": "Is building a third-party client on someone else's platform API viable?", "answer": "Apollo, a popular Reddit client, shut down on 30 June 2023 after Reddit's new API pricing would have cost it about $20M a year; Tweetbot and Twitterrific died the same way when Twitter cut off third-party clients in January 2023. Nothing about the apps changed. When the platform owns the enabler, it can take the market the moment you prove it.", "verdict": "nogo", "verdict_reason": "The platform owner controls the enabler and has used that control; nothing has changed it.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E8", "constraint": { "name": "Platform owner controls API access", "detail": "The app's existence depends on terms the platform can change in a memo." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Apollo for Reddit", "founded": null, "died": 2023, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Shut down 30 June 2023 after Reddit API pricing changes", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_(app)", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "Tweetbot", "founded": 2011, "died": 2023, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Shut down January 2023 after Twitter ended third-party client access", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tweetbot", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "tivo", "name": "TiVo", "kind": "myth", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/tivo/", "question": "Was TiVo too early for digital video recording?", "answer": "TiVo launched the consumer DVR in 1999 and defined the category, but cable and satellite operators bundled their own DVRs into set-top boxes, and TiVo sold itself to Rovi in 2016. It was on time for DVRs; the operators controlled distribution. That is capture, not timing.", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_reason": "Cable and satellite operators bundled DVRs and controlled distribution.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E6", "constraint": { "name": "Nothing was missing", "detail": "The enablers it needed already existed; something else killed it." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "TiVo", "founded": 1997, "died": 2016, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Acquired by Rovi for about $1.1B in 2016", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TiVo_Corporation", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "ultrafast-grocery-delivery", "name": "15-minute grocery delivery", "kind": "live", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/ultrafast-grocery-delivery/", "question": "Is 15-minute grocery delivery coming back?", "answer": "Gorillas, Getir, Buyk and Fridge No More raised large rounds in 2020-22 to deliver groceries in 15 minutes from dark stores. Buyk and Fridge No More collapsed in March 2022 when their funding was cut off, Gorillas sold itself to Getir that December, and Getir left the US, UK and Germany in 2024. Each order lost money and only cheap, plentiful capital covered it. The board's live metric is the fed funds rate, which is nowhere near its 2021 level.", "verdict": "nogo", "verdict_reason": "The blocker was the price of money, and the fed funds rate is still above 3.5%.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E8", "constraint": { "name": "Near-zero cost of capital", "detail": "Dark stores and couriers on standby lose money per order at small basket sizes; the model only survived while capital was nearly free." }, "crossing": null, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Buyk", "founded": null, "died": 2022, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Ceased operations and filed Chapter 11, March 2022, after its founders' funding was cut off by sanctions", "source": "https://www.grocerydive.com/news/us-rapid-grocery-delivery-space-consolidates-further/620603/", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "Fridge No More", "founded": null, "died": 2022, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Shut down, March 2022, after a sale of its assets fell through", "source": "https://www.grocerydive.com/news/us-rapid-grocery-delivery-space-consolidates-further/620603/", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "Gorillas", "founded": 2020, "died": 2024, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Acquired by Getir in December 2022; brand ended in 2024", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorillas_(company)", "conf": "M" }, { "name": "Getir (US, UK, Germany)", "founded": 2015, "died": 2024, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Announced in April 2024 it was leaving the US, UK and Germany", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Getir", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [], "evidence": [], "calls": [ "C17-zero-rates-return" ], "metric": { "label": "Effective federal funds rate (Federal Reserve, via FRED)", "unit": "%", "now": [ "2026-09-01", 3.75 ], "then": [ "2021-12-01", 0.08 ] }, "updated": "2026-10-25" }, { "slug": "voice-assistants", "name": "Voice assistants", "kind": "history", "url": "https://theguysaccount.github.io/idea-locator-prophet-fund/category/voice-assistants/", "question": "Why did early voice assistants fail, and when did they become viable?", "answer": "Wildfire Communications (1992) sold a speech-based electronic secretary from 1994 that answered calls and took voice commands; Orange bought it for $142M in 2000 and ended the product in 2005 for lack of use. Speech recognition before deep learning made too many errors for open-ended requests. Deep neural networks cut recognition errors sharply from 2012, and Siri (2011) and Alexa (2014) followed.", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_reason": "Deep-learning speech recognition (2012) made open-ended voice commands usable.", "verdict_since": "2026-10-25", "enabler": "E7", "constraint": { "name": "Speech recognition accuracy", "detail": "A voice assistant fails if it mishears a large share of requests; pre-2012 recognisers did." }, "crossing": { "date": "2012", "text": "Deep neural networks adopted for speech recognition in production systems." }, "graveyard": [ { "name": "Wildfire Communications", "founded": 1992, "died": 2005, "raised_usd_m": null, "how": "Bought by Orange for $142M in 2000; Orange ended the product in 2005", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wildfire_Communications", "conf": "M" } ], "winners": [ { "name": "Amazon Alexa", "founded": 2014, "note": "launched with the Echo, November 2014", "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Alexa" } ], "evidence": [], "calls": [], "metric": null, "updated": "2026-10-25" } ] }