{"generated": "2026-10-25", "categories": [{"slug": "advanced-nuclear-smr", "name": "Small modular nuclear reactors", "verdict": "pending", "verdict_label": "Trigger pending", "constraint": "Licensing path and first-of-a-kind cost", "crossing": "2026-04-29", "keywords": ["nuclear", "smr", "small modular reactor", "fission", "advanced reactor", "microreactor", "clean firm power"], "url": "../category/advanced-nuclear-smr/", "series": null}, {"slug": "africa-last-mile-distribution", "name": "Rural last-mile retail distribution in Africa", "verdict": "nogo", "verdict_label": "No-go", "constraint": "Patient capital", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["africa", "emerging markets", "rural commerce", "agent network", "last mile", "distribution", "kenya", "informal retail"], "url": "../category/africa-last-mile-distribution/", "series": null}, {"slug": "algorithmic-news-feeds", "name": "Personalised news feeds", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Always-on broadband", 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"diagnostics", "lab testing", "genomic testing", "hereditary testing", "precision medicine", "molecular diagnostics"], "url": "../category/clinical-genetic-testing/", "series": null}, {"slug": "cloud-infrastructure", "name": "Cloud infrastructure (utility computing)", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Hardware virtualisation", "crossing": "2003", "keywords": ["cloud", "hosting", "infrastructure", "utility computing", "data center", "servers", "managed hosting", "iaas"], "url": "../category/cloud-infrastructure/", "series": null}, {"slug": "consumer-genomics-subscriptions", "name": "Consumer genomics and health testing", "verdict": "unknown", "verdict_label": "I don't know", "constraint": "Cost of sequencing (named, but not binding)", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["consumer genomics", "dna test", "genetic testing", "wellness", "health testing", "personal genome", "longevity"], "url": "../category/consumer-genomics-subscriptions/", "series": {"label": "Cost to sequence a human genome (NHGRI, via Our World in Data)", "unit": "$", "direction": "down", "points": [[2001, 95263070.0], [2002, 61448420.0], [2003, 40157556.0], [2004, 18519312.0], [2005, 13801124.0], [2006, 10474556.0], [2007, 7147571.5], [2008, 342502.06], [2009, 70333.33], [2010, 29091.73], [2011, 7743.44], [2012, 5901.29], [2013, 5096.08], [2014, 4008.11], [2015, 1245.31], [2016, 1175.74], [2017, 1015.38], [2018, 1232.28], [2019, 606.32], [2020, 511.97], [2021, 454.05], [2022, 524.62]]}}, {"slug": "consumer-home-robots", "name": "Consumer home robots", "verdict": "nogo", "verdict_label": "No-go", "constraint": "Hardware margins and lasting use", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["home robot", "consumer robotics", "social robot", "robot companion", "household robot", "robotics", "toy robot"], "url": "../category/consumer-home-robots/", "series": null}, {"slug": "consumer-vr", "name": "Consumer virtual reality", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "GPU and 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"flying car", "advanced air mobility", "aviation"], "url": "../category/evtol-air-taxis/", "series": null}, {"slug": "excite-at-home", "name": "Excite@Home", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["broadband", "isp", "internet access", "portal", "telecom"], "url": "../category/excite-at-home/", "series": null}, {"slug": "fast-checkout", "name": "Fast (one-click checkout)", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["checkout", "payments", "one-click", "ecommerce payments", "fintech"], "url": "../category/fast-checkout/", "series": null}, {"slug": "friendster", "name": "Friendster", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["social network", "friends", "profiles"], "url": "../category/friendster/", "series": null}, {"slug": "implantable-bci", "name": "Implantable brain-computer interfaces", "verdict": "pending", "verdict_label": "Trigger pending", "constraint": "A regulatory path for permanent implants", "crossing": "pending", "keywords": ["brain computer interface", "bci", "neurotech", "neural implant", "neuroprosthetic", "paralysis", "brain implant"], "url": "../category/implantable-bci/", "series": null}, {"slug": "indoor-vertical-farming", "name": "Indoor vertical farming", "verdict": "nogo", "verdict_label": "No-go", "constraint": "Electricity price versus free sunlight", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["vertical farming", "indoor farming", "agtech", "controlled environment agriculture", "cea", "greenhouse", "hydroponics"], "url": "../category/indoor-vertical-farming/", "series": {"label": "Average US retail electricity price, city average (BLS, via FRED)", "unit": "$/kWh", "direction": "down", "points": [[2010, 0.125], [2011, 0.127], [2012, 0.127], [2013, 0.131], [2014, 0.135], [2015, 0.133], [2016, 0.133], [2017, 0.136], [2018, 0.135], [2019, 0.133], [2020, 0.136], [2021, 0.142], [2022, 0.165], [2023, 0.169], [2024, 0.176], [2025, 0.189], [2026, 0.196]]}}, {"slug": "juicero", "name": "Juicero", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["juicer", "kitchen appliance", "connected device", "hardware subscription", "iot"], "url": "../category/juicero/", "series": null}, {"slug": "lfp-batteries", "name": "LFP battery cells", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Electric-vehicle production volume", "crossing": "2015", "keywords": ["battery", "batteries", "lithium", "lfp", "energy storage", "cells", "electric vehicle"], "url": "../category/lfp-batteries/", "series": {"label": "Electric cars sold worldwide per year (IEA, via Our World in Data)", "unit": "cars", "direction": "up", "points": [[2010, 7450.0], [2011, 49000.0], [2012, 119000.0], [2013, 201000.0], [2014, 330000.0], [2015, 520000.0], [2016, 780000.0], [2017, 1200000.0], [2018, 2050000.0], [2019, 2080000.0], [2020, 2980000.0], [2021, 6600000.0], [2022, 10200000.0], [2023, 13700000.0], [2024, 17500000.0], [2025, 21200000.0]]}}, {"slug": "meal-kits", "name": "Blue Apron (meal kits)", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["meal kit", "food subscription", "cooking", "groceries", "dtc food"], "url": "../category/meal-kits/", "series": null}, {"slug": "music-lockers", "name": "Cloud music lockers", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Label licences for cloud copies", "crossing": "2011", "keywords": ["music locker", "cloud storage for music", "media library", "music cloud"], "url": "../category/music-lockers/", "series": null}, {"slug": "music-streaming", "name": "Licensed music streaming", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Label licences for on-demand streaming", "crossing": "2011", "keywords": ["music", "streaming", "audio", "songs", "music licensing", "peer to peer", "p2p"], "url": "../category/music-streaming/", "series": null}, {"slug": "myspace", "name": "MySpace", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["social network", "music community", "profiles"], "url": "../category/myspace/", "series": null}, {"slug": "obesity-care-generic-semaglutide", "name": "Obesity care on generic semaglutide (outside the US)", "verdict": "check", "verdict_label": "Blocked on a check", "constraint": "Drug price, set by patent protection", "crossing": "2026", "keywords": ["obesity", "weight loss", "glp-1", "semaglutide", "diabetes", "metabolic health", "telehealth weight", "generics"], "url": "../category/obesity-care-generic-semaglutide/", "series": null}, {"slug": "on-demand-local-delivery", "name": "On-demand local delivery", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Smartphone GPS dispatch and gig labour", "crossing": "2012", "keywords": ["on-demand delivery", "delivery app", "courier", "last mile", "same-day delivery", "one-hour delivery", "convenience delivery", "food delivery"], "url": "../category/on-demand-local-delivery/", "series": {"label": "US adults who own a smartphone (Pew Research Center)", "unit": "%", "direction": "up", "points": [[2011, 35.0], [2012, 46.0], [2013, 56.0], [2015, 68.0], [2016, 77.0], [2019, 81.0], [2021, 85.0], [2023, 90.0], [2024, 91.0], [2026, 91.0]]}}, {"slug": "online-grocery-delivery", "name": "Online grocery delivery", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Smartphone dispatch and gig labour", "crossing": "2012", "keywords": ["grocery", "groceries", "online grocery", "grocery delivery", "supermarket delivery", "e-grocery", "food delivery to home", "meal delivery"], "url": "../category/online-grocery-delivery/", "series": {"label": "US adults who own a smartphone (Pew Research Center)", "unit": "%", "direction": "up", "points": [[2011, 35.0], [2012, 46.0], [2013, 56.0], [2015, 68.0], [2016, 77.0], [2019, 81.0], [2021, 85.0], [2023, 90.0], [2024, 91.0], [2026, 91.0]]}}, {"slug": "online-used-cars", "name": "Shift and Vroom (online used cars)", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["used cars", "auto retail", "car marketplace", "automotive ecommerce"], "url": "../category/online-used-cars/", "series": null}, {"slug": "online-video", "name": "Online video", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Broadband and in-browser video", "crossing": "2005", "keywords": ["online video", "streaming video", "internet tv", "video platform", "creator video", "ott"], "url": "../category/online-video/", "series": {"label": "Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people, United States (ITU via World Bank)", "unit": "per 100", "direction": "up", "points": [[1998, 0.255913845], [1999, 0.986557204], [2000, 2.51164212166547], [2001, 4.50008028890173], [2002, 6.92533390658183], [2003, 9.57004719771541], [2004, 12.7576071681207], [2005, 17.2991096639721], [2006, 20.1645830201257], [2007, 23.7552995298973], [2008, 25.290984615215], [2009, 25.9694510145971], [2010, 27.1720060120338], [2011, 28.117023946999], [2012, 29.1736109719443], [2013, 29.9996164764959], [2014, 30.270920842], [2015, 31.3412129772455], [2016, 32.1144006365866], [2017, 32.5702836317829], [2018, 33.0559177307939], [2019, 33.835216356436], [2020, 35.7156999293054], [2021, 37.0074278936277], [2022, 37.4887954801437], [2023, 38.0939254696383], [2024, 38.8571729185246]]}}, {"slug": "pets-com", "name": "Pets.com", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["pet", "pets", "pet supplies", "ecommerce", "subscription commerce"], "url": "../category/pets-com/", "series": null}, {"slug": "population-genomics", "name": "Population genomics", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Cost of reading DNA", "crossing": "2008", "keywords": ["genomics", "genetics", "dna", "sequencing", "genome", "biobank", "precision medicine"], "url": "../category/population-genomics/", "series": {"label": "Cost to sequence a human genome (NHGRI, via Our World in Data)", "unit": "$", "direction": "down", "points": [[2001, 95263070.0], [2002, 61448420.0], [2003, 40157556.0], [2004, 18519312.0], [2005, 13801124.0], [2006, 10474556.0], [2007, 7147571.5], [2008, 342502.06], [2009, 70333.33], [2010, 29091.73], [2011, 7743.44], [2012, 5901.29], [2013, 5096.08], [2014, 4008.11], [2015, 1245.31], [2016, 1175.74], [2017, 1015.38], [2018, 1232.28], [2019, 606.32], [2020, 511.97], [2021, 454.05], [2022, 524.62]]}}, {"slug": "prescription-digital-therapeutics", "name": "Prescription digital therapeutics", "verdict": "ripe", "verdict_label": "Ripe", "constraint": "A Medicare payment code for prescription software", "crossing": "2025-01-01", "keywords": ["digital therapeutics", "dtx", "prescription app", "software as a medical device", "samd", "digital health", "mental health app", "fda cleared app", "behavioral health software", "remote therapy"], "url": "../category/prescription-digital-therapeutics/", "series": null}, {"slug": "qr-codes", "name": "Scan-to-web codes", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "A scanner in every pocket", "crossing": "2017", "keywords": ["qr code", "barcode", "print to web", "scanning", "offline to online", "o2o"], "url": "../category/qr-codes/", "series": {"label": "US adults who own a smartphone (Pew Research Center)", "unit": "%", "direction": "up", "points": [[2011, 35.0], [2012, 46.0], [2013, 56.0], [2015, 68.0], [2016, 77.0], [2019, 81.0], [2021, 85.0], [2023, 90.0], [2024, 91.0], [2026, 91.0]]}}, {"slug": "quibi", "name": "Quibi", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["short video", "streaming", "mobile video", "entertainment", "media"], "url": "../category/quibi/", "series": null}, {"slug": "satellite-broadband", "name": "Low-orbit satellite broadband", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Launch cost per kilogram", "crossing": "2010", "keywords": ["satellite", "broadband", "constellation", "space internet", "leo", "connectivity"], "url": "../category/satellite-broadband/", "series": {"label": "Cost to launch one kilogram to low Earth orbit (NASA estimate, 2018)", "unit": "$/kg", "direction": "down", "points": [[1981, 54500.0], [2010, 2720.0]]}}, {"slug": "satellite-phones", "name": "Satellite phones", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Launch cost and handset size", "crossing": "2010", "keywords": ["satellite phone", "satellite communications", "global coverage", "iot connectivity", "satellite messaging"], "url": "../category/satellite-phones/", "series": {"label": "Cost to launch one kilogram to low Earth orbit (NASA estimate, 2018)", "unit": "$/kg", "direction": "down", "points": [[1981, 54500.0], [2010, 2720.0]]}}, {"slug": "scooter-sharing", "name": "Bird (scooter sharing)", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["scooters", "micromobility", "bike sharing", "mobility", "electric scooter"], "url": "../category/scooter-sharing/", "series": null}, {"slug": "segway", "name": "Segway", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["personal transport", "micromobility", "scooter", "electric vehicle", "mobility"], "url": "../category/segway/", "series": null}, {"slug": "smartphones", "name": "Smartphones (pocket communicators)", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Multitouch, low-power chips and mobile data", "crossing": "2007", "keywords": ["smartphone", "mobile computer", "handheld", "pda", "communicator", "mobile device"], "url": "../category/smartphones/", "series": null}, {"slug": "social-networking", "name": "Social networking", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Broadband and digital photo upload", "crossing": "2003", "keywords": ["social network", "social media", "friends", "profiles", "social graph", "community platform"], "url": "../category/social-networking/", "series": {"label": "Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people, United States (ITU via World Bank)", "unit": "per 100", "direction": "up", "points": [[1998, 0.255913845], [1999, 0.986557204], [2000, 2.51164212166547], [2001, 4.50008028890173], [2002, 6.92533390658183], [2003, 9.57004719771541], [2004, 12.7576071681207], [2005, 17.2991096639721], [2006, 20.1645830201257], [2007, 23.7552995298973], [2008, 25.290984615215], [2009, 25.9694510145971], [2010, 27.1720060120338], [2011, 28.117023946999], [2012, 29.1736109719443], [2013, 29.9996164764959], [2014, 30.270920842], [2015, 31.3412129772455], [2016, 32.1144006365866], [2017, 32.5702836317829], [2018, 33.0559177307939], [2019, 33.835216356436], [2020, 35.7156999293054], [2021, 37.0074278936277], [2022, 37.4887954801437], [2023, 38.0939254696383], [2024, 38.8571729185246]]}}, {"slug": "software-freight-brokerage", "name": "Software freight brokerage", "verdict": "pending", "verdict_label": "Trigger pending", "constraint": "The truckload rate cycle", "crossing": "pending", "keywords": ["freight", "freight brokerage", "trucking", "logistics", "shipping", "load board", "supply chain", "transportation"], "url": "../category/software-freight-brokerage/", "series": {"label": "Producer price index: long-distance general freight trucking, truckload (BLS, via FRED)", "unit": "index", "direction": "up", "points": [[2015, 124.8], [2016, 124.2], [2017, 130.3], [2018, 140.4], [2019, 141.0], [2020, 147.6], [2021, 187.738], [2022, 200.778], [2023, 177.712], [2024, 171.718], [2025, 181.077], [2026, 219.384]]}}, {"slug": "solyndra", "name": "Solyndra", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Bet that polysilicon stays expensive", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["solar", "photovoltaic", "clean energy", "renewables", "thin film"], "url": "../category/solyndra/", "series": null}, {"slug": "starship-priced-space", "name": "Businesses priced off Starship launch costs", "verdict": "nogo", "verdict_label": "No-go", "constraint": "Measured, purchasable launch price", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["space", "launch", "satellites", "in-space manufacturing", "space station", "orbital", "space logistics"], "url": "../category/starship-priced-space/", "series": {"label": "Cost to launch one kilogram to low Earth orbit (NASA estimate, 2018)", "unit": "$/kg", "direction": "down", "points": [[1981, 54500.0], [2010, 2720.0]]}}, {"slug": "supersonic-passenger-flight", "name": "Supersonic passenger flight", "verdict": "pending", "verdict_label": "Trigger pending", "constraint": "US ban on civil supersonic flight over land", "crossing": "pending", "keywords": ["supersonic", "aviation", "airliner", "aerospace", "air travel", "business jet"], "url": "../category/supersonic-passenger-flight/", "series": null}, {"slug": "tablets", "name": "Tablet computers", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Touch input and battery life", "crossing": "2007", "keywords": ["tablet", "pen computing", "slate", "handwriting", "touchscreen device"], "url": "../category/tablets/", "series": null}, {"slug": "theranos", "name": "Theranos", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["blood testing", "diagnostics", "lab testing", "health tech", "medtech"], "url": "../category/theranos/", "series": null}, {"slug": "third-party-api-clients", "name": "Third-party clients on someone else's platform", "verdict": "nogo", "verdict_label": "No-go", "constraint": "Platform owner controls API access", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["api", "third party app", "client app", "platform", "developer ecosystem", "social media client", "integration"], "url": "../category/third-party-api-clients/", "series": null}, {"slug": "tivo", "name": "TiVo", "verdict": "not-timing", "verdict_label": "Not a timing failure", "constraint": "Nothing was missing", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["dvr", "tv", "set-top box", "media device", "streaming device"], "url": "../category/tivo/", "series": null}, {"slug": "ultrafast-grocery-delivery", "name": "15-minute grocery delivery", "verdict": "nogo", "verdict_label": "No-go", "constraint": "Near-zero cost of capital", "crossing": null, "keywords": ["quick commerce", "q-commerce", "15-minute delivery", "instant delivery", "dark store", "rapid delivery", "grocery delivery", "15-minute grocery", "dark stores", "ultrafast delivery", "instant grocery"], "url": "../category/ultrafast-grocery-delivery/", "series": {"label": "Effective federal funds rate (Federal Reserve, via FRED)", "unit": "%", "direction": "down", "points": [[2015, 0.24], [2016, 0.54], [2017, 1.3], [2018, 2.27], [2019, 1.55], [2020, 0.09], [2021, 0.08], [2022, 4.1], [2023, 5.33], [2024, 4.48], [2025, 3.72], [2026, 3.75]]}}, {"slug": "voice-assistants", "name": "Voice assistants", "verdict": "formed", "verdict_label": "Formed", "constraint": "Speech recognition accuracy", "crossing": "2012", "keywords": ["voice assistant", "speech recognition", "voice interface", "conversational ai", "virtual assistant", "voice"], "url": "../category/voice-assistants/", "series": null}]}