{"body":{"prior":"Calls C1-C5 were first frozen on 2026-08-01 in a private research chain (head 5b7eb13507f6...) that was never published. This public chain starts fresh; those calls keep their first-stated date, but only the public registration date counts for scoring.","registered":"2026-10-25","statement":"Idea Locator ripeness ledger. Calls, verdicts and resolutions are appended in order and never edited. Each entry carries the hash of the one before it."},"hash":"7f22efedd2e8e606f3247e13de11ac3f1e778753a8b3b7aca5f60145985e43d0","prev":"0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000","seq":0,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"genesis"}
{"body":{"category":"obesity-care-generic-semaglutide","falsifier":"Fewer than three of the five markets have a launched generic by 31 December 2027. Settlement-capped volumes count only if the product is purchasable at retail.","first_stated":"2026-08-01","id":"C1-sema-thicket","p_pct":60,"rationale":"Not higher than 60% because two of four patent-expiry entry dates in the slip corpus moved by years even though the legal date held, and the check that would settle it has not been run.","resolver":{"how":"Count the five markets with at least one generic or biosimilar semaglutide approved and commercially launched on the resolution date, from national regulator registries.","kind":"manual"},"resolves_on":"2027-12-31","statement":"No secondary-patent thicket materially delays generic semaglutide beyond 2026 in at least three of the five 2026-expiry markets (India, Canada, China, Brazil, Turkey)."},"hash":"408402c597b588ef49210e807d8403d5088873cf56c87f96c73007c9abcae546","prev":"7f22efedd2e8e606f3247e13de11ac3f1e778753a8b3b7aca5f60145985e43d0","seq":1,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"falsifier":"The high-risk obligations take effect in December 2027 substantially as drafted, with no further postponement and no material narrowing of Annex III.","first_stated":"2026-08-01","id":"C2-eu-ai-act-slips-again","p_pct":55,"rationale":"A live test of the slip corpus, where 88% of decided regulatory (S3) dates moved and every move was late. Only 55% because a second slip may carry a higher political cost.","resolver":{"how":"Compare the applicable EU instrument in force on the resolution date with the Digital Omnibus consolidated version.","kind":"manual"},"resolves_on":"2028-01-31","statement":"The EU AI Act's high-risk obligations slip again beyond the December 2027 date set by the Digital Omnibus, or are materially narrowed before taking effect.","topic":"slips"},"hash":"214a75dea1dd7496ea3d9150ec313ca2dea47b3c163c210432fdc6bc6f564ba1","prev":"408402c597b588ef49210e807d8403d5088873cf56c87f96c73007c9abcae546","seq":2,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"falsifier":"No enacted change, or every enacted change extends or loosens a deadline.","first_stated":"2026-08-01","id":"C3-us-credits-pulled-forward","p_pct":30,"rationale":"Tests the corpus finding that statutory sunsets moved early. Only 30% because all four early moves came from one 2025 bill: one event, not four.","resolver":{"how":"Enacted federal legislation amending sections 45X, 45Y, 48E, 45V or 45Z.","kind":"manual"},"resolves_on":"2027-12-31","statement":"At least one more US clean-energy tax credit deadline (sections 45X, 45Y, 48E, 45V or 45Z) is pulled forward or tightened, rather than extended, by enacted legislation before 31 December 2027.","topic":"slips"},"hash":"15805193a77ffcc649e4592efd5eb3031ebce6118035ba4d71323bc37d7ff528","prev":"214a75dea1dd7496ea3d9150ec313ca2dea47b3c163c210432fdc6bc6f564ba1","seq":3,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"category":"behind-the-meter-power-compute","falsifier":"Fewer than three such companies on the resolution date.","first_stated":"2026-08-01","id":"C4-btm-power-crowded","p_pct":45,"rationale":"Tests whether the low-occupancy read behind the category is right. Below even odds because the window opened in 2025 and incumbents move slowly on contracted generation.","resolver":{"how":"Count distinct companies with announced, contracted behind-the-meter generation for third-party compute load above 20 MW.","kind":"manual"},"resolves_on":"2027-12-31","statement":"By 31 December 2027, at least three well-capitalised companies or incumbent programmes have announced, contracted behind-the-meter generation serving third-party compute loads above 20 MW."},"hash":"0eaad24b4914e5d48777df8113e0037f229266cf1be532e9c8d85e72b305d76f","prev":"15805193a77ffcc649e4592efd5eb3031ebce6118035ba4d71323bc37d7ff528","seq":4,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"falsifier":"The naive rule performs as well or better.","first_stated":"2026-08-01","id":"C5-rule-beats-naive","p_pct":20,"rationale":"The call against the instrument itself. 20% because six candidates over two years is badly underpowered, and saying so in advance is the only way the result means anything.","resolver":{"how":"Score both rules retrospectively against the same six candidates on the resolution date.","kind":"manual"},"resolves_on":"2028-08-01","statement":"Scored in 2028, the board's admission rule applied to the six candidates on the 2026-08-01 board does better than the naive rule 'admit anything with a dated crossing'.","topic":"method"},"hash":"e43d27c86d22d92b885f3892db9cf29dfb5619b7e9ef4d3704f5744a72763cbc","prev":"0eaad24b4914e5d48777df8113e0037f229266cf1be532e9c8d85e72b305d76f","seq":5,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"category":"drone-delivery","falsifier":"No final rule under RIN 2120-AL82 is published in the Federal Register by 30 June 2027.","id":"C12-faa-bvlos-final-rule","p_pct":70,"rationale":"An executive order demands it and the proposal has been out since August 2025, but the rule already missed the order's timeline, and in the slip corpus most regulatory dates moved late.","resolver":{"kind":"federal_register","rin":"2120-AL82","since":"2026-10-25","type":"RULE"},"resolves_on":"2027-06-30","statement":"The FAA publishes a final rule for beyond-visual-line-of-sight drone operations (RIN 2120-AL82, new 14 CFR part 108) in the Federal Register by 30 June 2027."},"hash":"045eb79b7a8f86000d0640e5a2f5d470befa75f873b6ac30274f55be66120974","prev":"e43d27c86d22d92b885f3892db9cf29dfb5619b7e9ef4d3704f5744a72763cbc","seq":6,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"category":"supersonic-passenger-flight","falsifier":"No final rule under RIN 2120-AM15 is published by 31 December 2027.","id":"C13-supersonic-final-rule","p_pct":50,"rationale":"Strong political backing, but the proposal only appeared in July 2026 and noise rules draw heavy comment; 18 months from proposal to final is fast for a contested aviation rule.","resolver":{"kind":"federal_register","rin":"2120-AM15","since":"2026-10-25","type":"RULE"},"resolves_on":"2027-12-31","statement":"The FAA publishes a final rule enabling civil supersonic flight over land (RIN 2120-AM15) in the Federal Register by 31 December 2027."},"hash":"8e48e2c0852880733ac9ab8c8fc4bdac590ad4af413ad08b7ffa86c989f22527","prev":"045eb79b7a8f86000d0640e5a2f5d470befa75f873b6ac30274f55be66120974","seq":7,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"category":"prescription-digital-therapeutics","falsifier":"No CY 2027 Physician Fee Schedule final rule referencing G0552 is published by 31 January 2027.","id":"C14-medicare-dmht-codes-2027","p_pct":92,"rationale":"The codes appeared in both the CY 2025 and CY 2026 final rules, and the fee schedule final rule is published every November or December. The residual risk is the codes being dropped or the rule being late.","resolver":{"agency":"centers-for-medicare-medicaid-services","kind":"federal_register","since":"2026-10-25","term":"G0552","title_contains":["CY 2027","Physician Fee Schedule"],"type":"RULE"},"resolves_on":"2027-01-31","statement":"CMS publishes the CY 2027 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule final rule in the Federal Register by 31 January 2027, and it references HCPCS code G0552 (digital mental health treatment devices)."},"hash":"3d47df364c6aa5fca30b032c2e3749a7c6c45d8f8d5411d651992ccabcb05fd8","prev":"8e48e2c0852880733ac9ab8c8fc4bdac590ad4af413ad08b7ffa86c989f22527","seq":8,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"category":"indoor-vertical-farming","falsifier":"The September 2027 value is equal to or lower than the September 2026 value.","id":"C15-electricity-keeps-rising","p_pct":80,"rationale":"Retail electricity has risen year on year in most months since 2021, with data-centre load growth adding demand. That is the no-go for vertical farming, stated as a falsifiable number.","resolver":{"kind":"fred","left":{"date":"2027-09-01"},"op":"gt","right":{"date":"2026-09-01"},"series":"APU000072610"},"resolves_on":"2027-10-31","statement":"The US city-average retail electricity price for September 2027 (BLS series APU000072610) is higher than for September 2026."},"hash":"05a5cd3ff52b8625303f85f7625740f8f9528d17002ecb2060cddf0c50ffea18","prev":"3d47df364c6aa5fca30b032c2e3749a7c6c45d8f8d5411d651992ccabcb05fd8","seq":9,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"category":"software-freight-brokerage","falsifier":"The January-March 2027 average is less than 1.05 times the January-March 2026 average.","id":"C16-truckload-recovery-holds","p_pct":65,"rationale":"The index was about 18% above its March 2026 level by September 2026. Freight rates mean-revert and the spike may be seasonal, so the call is well short of certain.","resolver":{"kind":"fred","left":{"avg":["2027-01-01","2027-03-01"]},"op":"ge","right":{"avg":["2026-01-01","2026-03-01"]},"right_scale":"1.05","series":"PCU484121484121"},"resolves_on":"2027-04-30","statement":"The average of the BLS truckload producer price index (PCU484121484121) for January-March 2027 is at least 5% above its January-March 2026 average."},"hash":"b6098ff25f0e67a97d0fca0d54462678e7e5f934de94c949e533b3a453a0fecb","prev":"05a5cd3ff52b8625303f85f7625740f8f9528d17002ecb2060cddf0c50ffea18","seq":10,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"category":"ultrafast-grocery-delivery","falsifier":"The December 2027 monthly average is 1.00% or higher.","id":"C17-zero-rates-return","p_pct":5,"rationale":"The rate is 3.75% in September 2026. A return below 1% within 15 months would take a deep recession; that is what 15-minute delivery would need to come back as it was.","resolver":{"kind":"fred","left":{"date":"2027-12-01"},"op":"lt","right":{"value":"1.00"},"series":"FEDFUNDS"},"resolves_on":"2028-01-31","statement":"The effective federal funds rate for December 2027 (FRED series FEDFUNDS) is below 1.00%."},"hash":"7fb54749c2262552333f58c67bb89590d8825c6db214af44f2ead4e1ce132923","prev":"b6098ff25f0e67a97d0fca0d54462678e7e5f934de94c949e533b3a453a0fecb","seq":11,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"category":"display-less-ai-glasses-apps","falsifier":"On 31 December 2027 camera access for third-party apps is unavailable, in preview, waitlisted, or limited to approved partners.","id":"C19-glasses-open-app-channel","p_pct":55,"rationale":"An open app channel is the difference between an app ecosystem and the Apollo trap. Platform owners have opened camera access before, but usually slowly and on their own terms, so a little better than even.","resolver":{"how":"Check Meta's developer documentation and announcements on the resolution date: the toolkit must be generally available (not a preview or waitlist) and open to any registered developer.","kind":"manual"},"resolves_on":"2027-12-31","statement":"By 31 December 2027, Meta makes generally available a developer toolkit that lets any third-party developer publish an app that uses the camera of Ray-Ban Meta glasses, without per-developer approval."},"hash":"07b3f68fbef80b80210c1860e2a91c44396a863bacf496987dc66ef16ec92e49","prev":"7fb54749c2262552333f58c67bb89590d8825c6db214af44f2ead4e1ce132923","seq":12,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"category":"implantable-bci","falsifier":"No such Synchron study is first posted by 31 December 2027.","id":"C18-bci-pivotal-trial","p_pct":45,"rationale":"Synchron has said it is preparing a pivotal trial, but device pivotal trials often slip, and the registered title may not use the word 'pivotal', which this resolver requires.","resolver":{"first_posted_after":"2026-10-25","kind":"clinicaltrials","sponsor":"Synchron","title_contains":"pivotal"},"resolves_on":"2027-12-31","statement":"Synchron registers an interventional study with 'pivotal' in its title on ClinicalTrials.gov, first posted between 25 October 2026 and 31 December 2027."},"hash":"714f0ae06965a21109cba1adebc6844e365569e22266bb0022bd814595c0d4eb","prev":"07b3f68fbef80b80210c1860e2a91c44396a863bacf496987dc66ef16ec92e49","seq":13,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"call"}
{"body":{"category":"advanced-nuclear-smr","reason":"Licensing has crossed; first-of-a-kind cost and commercial operation have not.","verdict":"pending"},"hash":"c04449c7dc70747e14b07e299cd6fcb4222dc249a35b21b993b93fb0269ddf7e","prev":"714f0ae06965a21109cba1adebc6844e365569e22266bb0022bd814595c0d4eb","seq":14,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"africa-last-mile-distribution","reason":"The capital-duration mismatch that killed it has not changed.","verdict":"nogo"},"hash":"396c80948f2e5ee076578f793d1a43f74c7b8e74b1c44c15b66790801cc3dca8","prev":"c04449c7dc70747e14b07e299cd6fcb4222dc249a35b21b993b93fb0269ddf7e","seq":15,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"algorithmic-news-feeds","reason":"Always-on broadband (about 20 per 100 in 2006) made a constantly updating feed cheap to deliver.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"12b3022c863d6379ff06f9d9953f722e24467a50740675eb66e6fe0fef0af553","prev":"396c80948f2e5ee076578f793d1a43f74c7b8e74b1c44c15b66790801cc3dca8","seq":16,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"aquion-energy","reason":"Its pitch depended on lithium-ion staying expensive.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"2454c8b3f8083af16740b72b648f28bc802e4a440b235b7f5dcc9c1e4de69eb2","prev":"12b3022c863d6379ff06f9d9953f722e24467a50740675eb66e6fe0fef0af553","seq":17,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"behind-the-meter-power-compute","reason":"The crossing looks real; the graveyard is asserted at cohort level and must be enumerated before a ripe call.","verdict":"check"},"hash":"a992cdf39a61e52fdfd9d0d6a82d7f44e1b7b249ea1c30d08a9c24413fd7f9a7","prev":"2454c8b3f8083af16740b72b648f28bc802e4a440b235b7f5dcc9c1e4de69eb2","seq":18,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"better-place","reason":"It needed rival carmakers to standardise on its pack.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"ea2ff79b726df2209d47d4ea09f35243bef21d0aa43fd2a4c3a0fbe2edadd54d","prev":"a992cdf39a61e52fdfd9d0d6a82d7f44e1b7b249ea1c30d08a9c24413fd7f9a7","seq":19,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"boo-com","reason":"Net-a-Porter launched online fashion in 2000 and succeeded.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"11ac2ff99dd3e8fd732e448a7d6a5bd1e5a1ac9d3703950ac4d22ac19e1e3040","prev":"ea2ff79b726df2209d47d4ea09f35243bef21d0aa43fd2a4c3a0fbe2edadd54d","seq":20,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"camera-glasses","reason":"Social acceptance of always-present cameras and cheap on-device AI arrived by 2023.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"7bf3c211b0f23d783aac0096fcc52c9af81beaceb21e8465bf5a28d7f3f3cd87","prev":"11ac2ff99dd3e8fd732e448a7d6a5bd1e5a1ac9d3703950ac4d22ac19e1e3040","seq":21,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"clinical-genetic-testing","reason":"Cost keeps falling; the binding constraint, reimbursement, has no public series yet.","verdict":"check"},"hash":"ffe264815bc8607fdf7836949c2d9e8044ef14946fd69d51a97f2ccd6552c84a","prev":"7bf3c211b0f23d783aac0096fcc52c9af81beaceb21e8465bf5a28d7f3f3cd87","seq":22,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"cloud-infrastructure","reason":"Hardware virtualisation matured in 2003; AWS launched S3 and EC2 in 2006.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"f9f14334ec0e8cabbcb68947c78a5446a97c83775cca9742445f42e94471fde7","prev":"ffe264815bc8607fdf7836949c2d9e8044ef14946fd69d51a97f2ccd6552c84a","seq":23,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"consumer-genomics-subscriptions","reason":"The named constraint crossed long ago and the category died anyway, so the rule abstains.","verdict":"unknown"},"hash":"e4efa765491a849ea6c24c55436e9f282c8faa0641cb2e4bc6fef4ec0b113e42","prev":"f9f14334ec0e8cabbcb68947c78a5446a97c83775cca9742445f42e94471fde7","seq":24,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"consumer-home-robots","reason":"Neither the capital constraint nor the engagement problem has measurably changed.","verdict":"nogo"},"hash":"ae3a23640531b9c7e71a3e8e78f4c0d14f9741bd77e871786ff3e871fd2c31ff","prev":"e4efa765491a849ea6c24c55436e9f282c8faa0641cb2e4bc6fef4ec0b113e42","seq":25,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"consumer-vr","reason":"Phone displays and consumer GPUs made a few-hundred-dollar headset possible in 2012.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"3a482e35a820571aa6fdc65b7d37abb9bfba1d0837fa59ea1c3fa83bd6e0bb69","prev":"ae3a23640531b9c7e71a3e8e78f4c0d14f9741bd77e871786ff3e871fd2c31ff","seq":26,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"cruise-robotaxi","reason":"Waymo ran and expanded paid driverless service in the same years.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"f9576a08d211f2152e9752da3e5b52c96bd127884624b0f876f49e53af45e8aa","prev":"3a482e35a820571aa6fdc65b7d37abb9bfba1d0837fa59ea1c3fa83bd6e0bb69","seq":27,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"de-novo-protein-binders","reason":"A peer-reviewed crossing exists; no named, funded graveyard yet.","verdict":"check"},"hash":"10ac81a64269ad49f73d75866c6da24a6cc7216d49cce0d46ca34b28ed395c89","prev":"f9576a08d211f2152e9752da3e5b52c96bd127884624b0f876f49e53af45e8aa","seq":28,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"digital-cash","reason":"Decentralised consensus (2009) removed the need for an issuing bank.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"5e9f6d79d2104aa103b019c02cf545bd90b16176de5070e420534ea1ccd4954c","prev":"10ac81a64269ad49f73d75866c6da24a6cc7216d49cce0d46ca34b28ed395c89","seq":29,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"display-less-ai-glasses-apps","reason":"The install base is growing fast; platform-owner capture is the unpriced risk.","verdict":"check"},"hash":"fda6ed7654e731d4300ebfe418f097f1e4ad20a484b72142f9e0b7cf2a0471e3","prev":"5e9f6d79d2104aa103b019c02cf545bd90b16176de5070e420534ea1ccd4954c","seq":30,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"driverless-trucking","reason":"One operator runs driverless freight; the federal rule that would make it routine is not final.","verdict":"pending"},"hash":"75faa0d12a4e5a865e6a369b52362ff71962ea9fa8da68e16b3e02416deb43b2","prev":"fda6ed7654e731d4300ebfe418f097f1e4ad20a484b72142f9e0b7cf2a0471e3","seq":31,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"drone-delivery","reason":"The enabling rule is proposed but not final. The board resolves its call automatically from the Federal Register.","verdict":"pending"},"hash":"e094e2a7505a717eef0b5a4f7cc501dec4989aa4cf7c601e008a4d6adead190d","prev":"75faa0d12a4e5a865e6a369b52362ff71962ea9fa8da68e16b3e02416deb43b2","seq":32,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"etoys","reason":"Amazon sold toys online through the same period.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"c04b5ce219fb2b8c5b9825cf1883bdd89dad5b1a5f1030fd062c1de82b049a92","prev":"e094e2a7505a717eef0b5a4f7cc501dec4989aa4cf7c601e008a4d6adead190d","seq":33,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"evtol-air-taxis","reason":"The regulatory blocker crossed and leaders still failed, so the rule abstains.","verdict":"unknown"},"hash":"1a9a5080e54f1380740a2582397eee475f5a2af11cc915bba0271b537cc31cde","prev":"c04b5ce219fb2b8c5b9825cf1883bdd89dad5b1a5f1030fd062c1de82b049a92","seq":34,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"excite-at-home","reason":"The cable operators owned the pipes and took the market.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"c78806c892685ef6f7280bd05bfdbc028a619fe26e33935a3521417fd637bf20","prev":"1a9a5080e54f1380740a2582397eee475f5a2af11cc915bba0271b537cc31cde","seq":35,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"fast-checkout","reason":"Shop Pay and Amazon already offered one-click checkout at scale.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"9f18075117b0f73354b014e72ddee44d5831baf07f045071759626efbdaf6e2d","prev":"c78806c892685ef6f7280bd05bfdbc028a619fe26e33935a3521417fd637bf20","seq":36,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"friendster","reason":"MySpace succeeded in the same window with the same technology.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"cc1459db7a85574fe3799c3046cc782157203b30c7f63f4c6404eb8ca516de9f","prev":"9f18075117b0f73354b014e72ddee44d5831baf07f045071759626efbdaf6e2d","seq":37,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"implantable-bci","reason":"Early feasibility studies are running; no pivotal trial is registered yet.","verdict":"pending"},"hash":"d877598a892727d92892fc591bf0fa75d8e4108cd374e342e39975847369474a","prev":"cc1459db7a85574fe3799c3046cc782157203b30c7f63f4c6404eb8ca516de9f","seq":38,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"indoor-vertical-farming","reason":"The killing input, electricity, got more expensive. Waiting makes it worse.","verdict":"nogo"},"hash":"27cf4722bcbc9fe8a552907d8ae7f581259920d78d461467b7a554ef6f272ded","prev":"d877598a892727d92892fc591bf0fa75d8e4108cd374e342e39975847369474a","seq":39,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"juicero","reason":"The packs could be squeezed by hand; no enabler fixes that.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"df4bb1684d3006eee6115a82939438b7d25cd4361470850dc280be9ccde180e6","prev":"27cf4722bcbc9fe8a552907d8ae7f581259920d78d461467b7a554ef6f272ded","seq":40,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"lfp-batteries","reason":"EV volume crossed the scale cell makers needed in the mid-2010s.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"e4958ec08dc5488c8f120723a42c2d57e4eaea243776d08ff3da011a6b1b95fd","prev":"df4bb1684d3006eee6115a82939438b7d25cd4361470850dc280be9ccde180e6","seq":41,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"meal-kits","reason":"HelloFresh grew in the same market over the same years.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"3b9fcbcd9b82cea8f027d8b485d427aa252f32caceb0e96e916d353a4520b3c2","prev":"e4958ec08dc5488c8f120723a42c2d57e4eaea243776d08ff3da011a6b1b95fd","seq":42,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"music-lockers","reason":"Licensed lockers launched in 2011, eleven years after the lawsuit.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"15741b968e25a30c1e1f8b7904085f52437e7ec9708b32741cc84d9f954b8266","prev":"3b9fcbcd9b82cea8f027d8b485d427aa252f32caceb0e96e916d353a4520b3c2","seq":43,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"music-streaming","reason":"Label licences for on-demand streaming arrived 2008-2011; Spotify launched as they did.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"b8d28a8398e1daccd4679b4ab24a000bcbb22d925fbce7ad3047a712c14ada4f","prev":"15741b968e25a30c1e1f8b7904085f52437e7ec9708b32741cc84d9f954b8266","seq":44,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"myspace","reason":"Facebook won in the same years with the same enablers.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"bca6da8d571523646d967b05846a878f41c926be5616f22c5fad237dd25198f9","prev":"b8d28a8398e1daccd4679b4ab24a000bcbb22d925fbce7ad3047a712c14ada4f","seq":45,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"obesity-care-generic-semaglutide","reason":"The compound patents lapse in 2026; the secondary-patent thicket check has not been run.","verdict":"check"},"hash":"e065aa59de684bddf95de921ec1d96023ccfc602ca9294d1273953d4afd76eb6","prev":"bca6da8d571523646d967b05846a878f41c926be5616f22c5fad237dd25198f9","seq":46,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"on-demand-local-delivery","reason":"Smartphone GPS dispatch and gig couriers arrived around 2011-2013; the winners were founded inside that window.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"430fe10989c54e1a998c99e8f33028639659a6fa4e5693b2b4881dd1446003d9","prev":"e065aa59de684bddf95de921ec1d96023ccfc602ca9294d1273953d4afd76eb6","seq":47,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"online-grocery-delivery","reason":"Smartphone ownership passed 45% of US adults in 2012, the year Instacart was founded.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"02af518a227e36ba2b7b995eff38dd0b9ac99636603d6d613fa23832fa3492d4","prev":"430fe10989c54e1a998c99e8f33028639659a6fa4e5693b2b4881dd1446003d9","seq":48,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"online-used-cars","reason":"Carvana sold cars online through the same period and grew.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"ecec51d5901ee5220b6f35fd1aed33c3a00d760c74c592c40e23ffba2209b6af","prev":"02af518a227e36ba2b7b995eff38dd0b9ac99636603d6d613fa23832fa3492d4","seq":49,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"online-video","reason":"Broadband passed 17 per 100 in 2005, the year YouTube launched.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"8a99f0936fe1dcf0de97bc00908fe1143a06db644b6352c07daeae195c4efe10","prev":"ecec51d5901ee5220b6f35fd1aed33c3a00d760c74c592c40e23ffba2209b6af","seq":50,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"pets-com","reason":"Chewy needed no technology that Pets.com lacked.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"946ee25786b80ee8f46aa838f91095fc50a80f52ebc525db2fa4c363ccc12c41","prev":"8a99f0936fe1dcf0de97bc00908fe1143a06db644b6352c07daeae195c4efe10","seq":51,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"population-genomics","reason":"Sequencing cost collapsed after 2008; population genomics became routine.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"5449237bba0e4048f9d1304d3ded563aa064952763ee4c05ab5e1d8ad97087df","prev":"946ee25786b80ee8f46aa838f91095fc50a80f52ebc525db2fa4c363ccc12c41","seq":52,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"prescription-digital-therapeutics","reason":"The payment code that was missing took effect 1 January 2025, and three funded companies died proving demand.","verdict":"ripe"},"hash":"0198f5646a6200ed00ffdf09f66d195e8794b2b33a59c94795c60ea4eb73e284","prev":"5449237bba0e4048f9d1304d3ded563aa064952763ee4c05ab5e1d8ad97087df","seq":53,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"qr-codes","reason":"Camera phones in three-quarters of pockets and native QR reading (2017) made scanning effortless.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"0360c2e8c940156b912573522ee79a224660e30972e4214367867fd53bdda1d4","prev":"0198f5646a6200ed00ffdf09f66d195e8794b2b33a59c94795c60ea4eb73e284","seq":54,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"quibi","reason":"Free short video boomed in the same months.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"1da7292b7cab78fdca91d3d73bac00aee10ee17593c74359f423d5ba277ab2a7","prev":"0360c2e8c940156b912573522ee79a224660e30972e4214367867fd53bdda1d4","seq":55,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"satellite-broadband","reason":"Reusable-era launch prices fell about 20x; Starlink followed.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"99f71e968efdb6fe26490f326caccc93662491816425594c97bb8d958ff462a1","prev":"1da7292b7cab78fdca91d3d73bac00aee10ee17593c74359f423d5ba277ab2a7","seq":56,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"satellite-phones","reason":"The network outlived its financing; cheaper launch and smaller radios made satellite service a business.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"081d9ca9eab29d2905eff786b4bd420bfa99970dcf732bbd84ae3dfa6255f33c","prev":"99f71e968efdb6fe26490f326caccc93662491816425594c97bb8d958ff462a1","seq":57,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"scooter-sharing","reason":"Lime ran the same model in the same years and reached profitability.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"83b2ed1548c008e648edce3bea7c82536e4cc6cbd687e0f7f8f16fb7bfa6130f","prev":"081d9ca9eab29d2905eff786b4bd420bfa99970dcf732bbd84ae3dfa6255f33c","seq":58,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"segway","reason":"Short trips went electric through a different, cheaper product.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"5c3b94e29bac9d99d4e6ac40cc90dd3f0a6c3814be3075e807b6148fdc3700cd","prev":"83b2ed1548c008e648edce3bea7c82536e4cc6cbd687e0f7f8f16fb7bfa6130f","seq":59,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"smartphones","reason":"Multitouch, low-power ARM chips and 3G converged in 2007.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"c3eb3f4aca987235bb9f6a55a5c2792d48e46db133996a69747629484d0d8160","prev":"5c3b94e29bac9d99d4e6ac40cc90dd3f0a6c3814be3075e807b6148fdc3700cd","seq":60,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"social-networking","reason":"Broadband and digital photos crossed around 2003; three social networks launched within two years.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"e7935fad309d1fb1e4258bf24968b0c20804c3f68cddbb281fff16f6724cd732","prev":"c3eb3f4aca987235bb9f6a55a5c2792d48e46db133996a69747629484d0d8160","seq":61,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"software-freight-brokerage","reason":"Rates are recovering; the call on whether the recovery holds resolves from BLS data in 2027.","verdict":"pending"},"hash":"979e8743defb63e972ec12ea08f62a2ca3102b92b0d63c229f05a1b5a1aa4625","prev":"e7935fad309d1fb1e4258bf24968b0c20804c3f68cddbb281fff16f6724cd732","seq":62,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"solyndra","reason":"Its edge required a rival input to stay expensive; it got cheaper.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"2d792bbbfb9c877b953f094db11cc0bfc365f806a0b6105e6040591d45fd66c9","prev":"979e8743defb63e972ec12ea08f62a2ca3102b92b0d63c229f05a1b5a1aa4625","seq":63,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"starship-priced-space","reason":"No one can buy launch at the assumed price yet; announced is not measured.","verdict":"nogo"},"hash":"f1e57918c213962ae23927d12d9115f79cde911bfc67cd281aaefbb04f35278d","prev":"2d792bbbfb9c877b953f094db11cc0bfc365f806a0b6105e6040591d45fd66c9","seq":64,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"supersonic-passenger-flight","reason":"The rule that would reopen overland routes is proposed, not final.","verdict":"pending"},"hash":"7afec1383ebf4b12368ae8e91fe387df27925180c06ff7ece369a7cf646d0bd0","prev":"f1e57918c213962ae23927d12d9115f79cde911bfc67cd281aaefbb04f35278d","seq":65,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"tablets","reason":"The iPhone's multitouch and ARM stack (2007) made the iPad (2010) possible.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"bf7242943ab4afc22378a67740a0ebe659745b75d9da026df6e41449fbbd441c","prev":"7afec1383ebf4b12368ae8e91fe387df27925180c06ff7ece369a7cf646d0bd0","seq":66,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"theranos","reason":"The core claims were false; the founder was convicted of fraud.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"2fd6e15c89e3b44ae90a49cb228c65d41ec4ff6b0b8786e0726a1f0ee2292e6b","prev":"bf7242943ab4afc22378a67740a0ebe659745b75d9da026df6e41449fbbd441c","seq":67,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"third-party-api-clients","reason":"The platform owner controls the enabler and has used that control; nothing has changed it.","verdict":"nogo"},"hash":"06e9e4cced349ff7035476a2671e6aa499c8fc2bf73d69f7bf62ca0c6618a224","prev":"2fd6e15c89e3b44ae90a49cb228c65d41ec4ff6b0b8786e0726a1f0ee2292e6b","seq":68,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"tivo","reason":"Cable and satellite operators bundled DVRs and controlled distribution.","verdict":"not-timing"},"hash":"6e7274b7adc5ebc4d231f974d3febb325057498bdc0497c52e2b4d6c05bb259a","prev":"06e9e4cced349ff7035476a2671e6aa499c8fc2bf73d69f7bf62ca0c6618a224","seq":69,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"ultrafast-grocery-delivery","reason":"The blocker was the price of money, and the fed funds rate is still above 3.5%.","verdict":"nogo"},"hash":"3b845f2315c18117a5e1862aeb504546a46fb875ef33a16126dcea287a1e32d0","prev":"6e7274b7adc5ebc4d231f974d3febb325057498bdc0497c52e2b4d6c05bb259a","seq":70,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}
{"body":{"category":"voice-assistants","reason":"Deep-learning speech recognition (2012) made open-ended voice commands usable.","verdict":"formed"},"hash":"ffdbaff56ee76afb6b3c5f3de7bb86b1c11bbe817897482fbdcd7d6cd6cc9a53","prev":"3b845f2315c18117a5e1862aeb504546a46fb875ef33a16126dcea287a1e32d0","seq":71,"ts":"2026-10-25T21:43:55Z","type":"verdict"}