https://theguysaccount.github.io/independents-win-tracker/ 2026-10-26T00:27:00ZIndependents Tracker tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-262026-10-26T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 26%, Polymarket 27% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 20.5%, Polymarket 19.2% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 8.3%, Polymarket 7.4% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 6.2% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 4.5%, Polymarket 3.5% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 4.5%, Polymarket 4.5% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 3% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 1% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% Mayra Macías (IL-04): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-252026-10-25T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 25.5%, Polymarket 25.5% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 20.5%, Polymarket 19.1% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 8.2%, Polymarket 7.4% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 6.2% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 4.5%, Polymarket 3.5% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 4.5%, Polymarket 4.5% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 3% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 1% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% Mayra Macías (IL-04): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-242026-10-24T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 24%, Polymarket 26.5% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 20%, Polymarket 21.6% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 8.3%, Polymarket 7.4% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 7.5% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 5%, Polymarket 2.9% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 4.3% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 4% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 1% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-232026-10-23T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 24%, Polymarket 26.5% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 19% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 7.9% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 7.5% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 5%, Polymarket 3.4% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 5% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 5% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 0.5% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% Mayra Macías (IL-04): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-222026-10-22T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 27% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 18% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 8.1% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 6.1% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 6% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 7% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 4.5% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 1% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% Mayra Macías (IL-04): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-212026-10-21T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 27%, Polymarket 29% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 15%, Polymarket 15.2% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 7.6%, Polymarket 7.8% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 4.5% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 4.1% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 7%, Polymarket 6.5% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 4.5% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 0.5% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% Mayra Macías (IL-04): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-202026-10-20T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 28%, Polymarket 29.5% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 12%, Polymarket 14.4% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 10%, Polymarket 8.2% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 5% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 3.9% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 7%, Polymarket 7% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 4% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 0.5% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% Mayra Macías (IL-04): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-192026-10-19T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 27%, Polymarket 29.5% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 12.5%, Polymarket 14.1% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 9.5%, Polymarket 8.5% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 5.1% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 3.8% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 8%, Polymarket 7% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 3% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 0.5% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-182026-10-18T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 28% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 13% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 8.9% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 5.2% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 3.9% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 8%, Polymarket 7.1% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 7% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 0.5% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-172026-10-17T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 26%, Polymarket 28.5% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 13%, Polymarket 15.5% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 8.9%, Polymarket 8.7% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 6.4% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 3.9% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 8%, Polymarket 7% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 25% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 0.5% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% Mayra Macías (IL-04): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-162026-10-16T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 27%, Polymarket 27.5% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 12%, Polymarket 11.2% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 9.4%, Polymarket 6.6% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 7.5% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 7%, Polymarket 3.7% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 7%, Polymarket 5.5% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 5% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 0.5% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% Mayra Macías (IL-04): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-152026-10-15T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 25%, Polymarket 27.5% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 13% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 7.4% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 7% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 4% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 4%, Polymarket 5.5% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 3% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 0.5% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-142026-10-14T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 24%, Polymarket 27.5% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 12%, Polymarket 11.2% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 7.6%, Polymarket 6.7% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 6.8% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 6%, Polymarket 4.1% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 5%, Polymarket 5.2% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 9% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 0.5% Michael Bridgford (IA-01): Kalshi 0.5% tag:theguysaccount.github.io,2026:independents-win-tracker:2026-10-132026-10-13T23:59:59Z Dan Osborn (NE Senate): Kalshi 26%, Polymarket 28.5% Bill Hill (AK-AL): Kalshi 13%, Polymarket 11.2% Seth Bodnar (MT Senate): Kalshi 7%, Polymarket 5.4% Kevin Kiley (CA-06): Kalshi 8.1% Todd Achilles (ID Senate): Kalshi 7%, Polymarket 3.9% Brian Bengs (SD Senate): Kalshi 7%, Polymarket 7.1% Chris Getty (IL-04): Kalshi 3% Austin Ahlman (NE-01): Kalshi 0.5%