Myth check
Was Solyndra too early for solar?
Not a timing failure since 2026-10-25 · ledger #63
Its edge required a rival input to stay expensive; it got cheaper.
Short answer
Solyndra made cylindrical thin-film panels that only beat conventional silicon panels while polysilicon was expensive. Polysilicon prices then collapsed, conventional panels got cheaper, and Solyndra filed for bankruptcy in September 2011 despite a $535M federal loan guarantee. Solar went on to boom using the technology it bet against. Waiting made it worse, the inverse of too early.
- Killing constraint
- Bet that polysilicon stays expensive
E1 Cost curve - Why it is not timing
- Cost-curve inversion: it bet a rival technology stays expensive
An advantage that depends on a competitor's input staying costly disappears when that input gets cheap.
Graveyard
Companies that died proving people wanted this. Capital shown where it was disclosed.
| Company | Years | Capital | How it died | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solyndra | 2005–2011 | — plus a $535M federal loan guarantee | Chapter 11, September 2011 | source H |