The ledger
Every call, verdict and resolution, in order. Each entry carries the SHA-256 hash of the entry before it, so changing any past entry breaks every hash after it. The deploy job refuses to publish a ledger that does not extend the one already live.
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Head ffdbaff56ee76afb6b3c5f3de7bb86b1c11bbe817897482fbdcd7d6cd6cc9a53 · 72 entries. Canonical form: JSON with sorted keys, no whitespace, ASCII-escaped; hash = sha256(canonical({seq, type, ts, body, prev})).
Score
No call has resolved yet, so there is no score to report, and reporting one would be the lie. The first call is due 2027-01-31. Until then, what exists is tamper-evidence.
Entries
| # | Date | Type | Entry | Hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | verdict | Verdict: Voice assistants is Formed. Deep-learning speech recognition (2012) made open-ended voice commands usable. | ffdbaff56ee7… | |
| 70 | verdict | Verdict: 15-minute grocery delivery is No-go. The blocker was the price of money, and the fed funds rate is still above 3.5%. | 3b845f2315c1… | |
| 69 | verdict | Verdict: TiVo is Not a timing failure. Cable and satellite operators bundled DVRs and controlled distribution. | 6e7274b7adc5… | |
| 68 | verdict | Verdict: Third-party clients on someone else's platform is No-go. The platform owner controls the enabler and has used that control; nothing has changed it. | 06e9e4cced34… | |
| 67 | verdict | Verdict: Theranos is Not a timing failure. The core claims were false; the founder was convicted of fraud. | 2fd6e15c89e3… | |
| 66 | verdict | Verdict: Tablet computers is Formed. The iPhone's multitouch and ARM stack (2007) made the iPad (2010) possible. | bf7242943ab4… | |
| 65 | verdict | Verdict: Supersonic passenger flight is Trigger pending. The rule that would reopen overland routes is proposed, not final. | 7afec1383ebf… | |
| 64 | verdict | Verdict: Businesses priced off Starship launch costs is No-go. No one can buy launch at the assumed price yet; announced is not measured. | f1e57918c213… | |
| 63 | verdict | Verdict: Solyndra is Not a timing failure. Its edge required a rival input to stay expensive; it got cheaper. | 2d792bbbfb9c… | |
| 62 | verdict | Verdict: Software freight brokerage is Trigger pending. Rates are recovering; the call on whether the recovery holds resolves from BLS data in 2027. | 979e8743defb… | |
| 61 | verdict | Verdict: Social networking is Formed. Broadband and digital photos crossed around 2003; three social networks launched within two years. | e7935fad309d… | |
| 60 | verdict | Verdict: Smartphones (pocket communicators) is Formed. Multitouch, low-power ARM chips and 3G converged in 2007. | c3eb3f4aca98… | |
| 59 | verdict | Verdict: Segway is Not a timing failure. Short trips went electric through a different, cheaper product. | 5c3b94e29bac… | |
| 58 | verdict | Verdict: Bird (scooter sharing) is Not a timing failure. Lime ran the same model in the same years and reached profitability. | 83b2ed1548c0… | |
| 57 | verdict | Verdict: Satellite phones is Formed. The network outlived its financing; cheaper launch and smaller radios made satellite service a business. | 081d9ca9eab2… | |
| 56 | verdict | Verdict: Low-orbit satellite broadband is Formed. Reusable-era launch prices fell about 20x; Starlink followed. | 99f71e968efd… | |
| 55 | verdict | Verdict: Quibi is Not a timing failure. Free short video boomed in the same months. | 1da7292b7cab… | |
| 54 | verdict | Verdict: Scan-to-web codes is Formed. Camera phones in three-quarters of pockets and native QR reading (2017) made scanning effortless. | 0360c2e8c940… | |
| 53 | verdict | Verdict: Prescription digital therapeutics is Ripe. The payment code that was missing took effect 1 January 2025, and three funded companies died proving demand. | 0198f5646a62… | |
| 52 | verdict | Verdict: Population genomics is Formed. Sequencing cost collapsed after 2008; population genomics became routine. | 5449237bba0e… | |
| 51 | verdict | Verdict: Pets.com is Not a timing failure. Chewy needed no technology that Pets.com lacked. | 946ee25786b8… | |
| 50 | verdict | Verdict: Online video is Formed. Broadband passed 17 per 100 in 2005, the year YouTube launched. | 8a99f0936fe1… | |
| 49 | verdict | Verdict: Shift and Vroom (online used cars) is Not a timing failure. Carvana sold cars online through the same period and grew. | ecec51d5901e… | |
| 48 | verdict | Verdict: Online grocery delivery is Formed. Smartphone ownership passed 45% of US adults in 2012, the year Instacart was founded. | 02af518a227e… | |
| 47 | verdict | Verdict: On-demand local delivery is Formed. Smartphone GPS dispatch and gig couriers arrived around 2011-2013; the winners were founded inside that window. | 430fe10989c5… | |
| 46 | verdict | Verdict: Obesity care on generic semaglutide (outside the US) is Blocked on a check. The compound patents lapse in 2026; the secondary-patent thicket check has not been run. | e065aa59de68… | |
| 45 | verdict | Verdict: MySpace is Not a timing failure. Facebook won in the same years with the same enablers. | bca6da8d5715… | |
| 44 | verdict | Verdict: Licensed music streaming is Formed. Label licences for on-demand streaming arrived 2008-2011; Spotify launched as they did. | b8d28a8398e1… | |
| 43 | verdict | Verdict: Cloud music lockers is Formed. Licensed lockers launched in 2011, eleven years after the lawsuit. | 15741b968e25… | |
| 42 | verdict | Verdict: Blue Apron (meal kits) is Not a timing failure. HelloFresh grew in the same market over the same years. | 3b9fcbcd9b82… | |
| 41 | verdict | Verdict: LFP battery cells is Formed. EV volume crossed the scale cell makers needed in the mid-2010s. | e4958ec08dc5… | |
| 40 | verdict | Verdict: Juicero is Not a timing failure. The packs could be squeezed by hand; no enabler fixes that. | df4bb1684d30… | |
| 39 | verdict | Verdict: Indoor vertical farming is No-go. The killing input, electricity, got more expensive. Waiting makes it worse. | 27cf4722bcbc… | |
| 38 | verdict | Verdict: Implantable brain-computer interfaces is Trigger pending. Early feasibility studies are running; no pivotal trial is registered yet. | d877598a8927… | |
| 37 | verdict | Verdict: Friendster is Not a timing failure. MySpace succeeded in the same window with the same technology. | cc1459db7a85… | |
| 36 | verdict | Verdict: Fast (one-click checkout) is Not a timing failure. Shop Pay and Amazon already offered one-click checkout at scale. | 9f18075117b0… | |
| 35 | verdict | Verdict: Excite@Home is Not a timing failure. The cable operators owned the pipes and took the market. | c78806c89268… | |
| 34 | verdict | Verdict: Electric air taxis (eVTOL) is I don't know. The regulatory blocker crossed and leaders still failed, so the rule abstains. | 1a9a5080e54f… | |
| 33 | verdict | Verdict: eToys is Not a timing failure. Amazon sold toys online through the same period. | c04b5ce219fb… | |
| 32 | verdict | Verdict: Drone delivery (US) is Trigger pending. The enabling rule is proposed but not final. The board resolves its call automatically from the Federal Register. | e094e2a7505a… | |
| 31 | verdict | Verdict: Driverless trucking is Trigger pending. One operator runs driverless freight; the federal rule that would make it routine is not final. | 75faa0d12a4e… | |
| 30 | verdict | Verdict: Apps for AI camera glasses is Blocked on a check. The install base is growing fast; platform-owner capture is the unpriced risk. | fda6ed7654e7… | |
| 29 | verdict | Verdict: Digital cash is Formed. Decentralised consensus (2009) removed the need for an issuing bank. | 5e9f6d79d210… | |
| 28 | verdict | Verdict: AI protein binder design as a service is Blocked on a check. A peer-reviewed crossing exists; no named, funded graveyard yet. | 10ac81a64269… | |
| 27 | verdict | Verdict: Cruise (robotaxis) is Not a timing failure. Waymo ran and expanded paid driverless service in the same years. | f9576a08d211… | |
| 26 | verdict | Verdict: Consumer virtual reality is Formed. Phone displays and consumer GPUs made a few-hundred-dollar headset possible in 2012. | 3a482e35a820… | |
| 25 | verdict | Verdict: Consumer home robots is No-go. Neither the capital constraint nor the engagement problem has measurably changed. | ae3a23640531… | |
| 24 | verdict | Verdict: Consumer genomics and health testing is I don't know. The named constraint crossed long ago and the category died anyway, so the rule abstains. | e4efa765491a… | |
| 23 | verdict | Verdict: Cloud infrastructure (utility computing) is Formed. Hardware virtualisation matured in 2003; AWS launched S3 and EC2 in 2006. | f9f14334ec0e… | |
| 22 | verdict | Verdict: Broad clinical genetic testing is Blocked on a check. Cost keeps falling; the binding constraint, reimbursement, has no public series yet. | ffe264815bc8… | |
| 21 | verdict | Verdict: Camera glasses is Formed. Social acceptance of always-present cameras and cheap on-device AI arrived by 2023. | 7bf3c211b0f2… | |
| 20 | verdict | Verdict: Boo.com is Not a timing failure. Net-a-Porter launched online fashion in 2000 and succeeded. | 11ac2ff99dd3… | |
| 19 | verdict | Verdict: Better Place is Not a timing failure. It needed rival carmakers to standardise on its pack. | ea2ff79b726d… | |
| 18 | verdict | Verdict: Behind-the-meter power for compute is Blocked on a check. The crossing looks real; the graveyard is asserted at cohort level and must be enumerated before a ripe call. | a992cdf39a61… | |
| 17 | verdict | Verdict: Aquion Energy is Not a timing failure. Its pitch depended on lithium-ion staying expensive. | 2454c8b3f808… | |
| 16 | verdict | Verdict: Personalised news feeds is Formed. Always-on broadband (about 20 per 100 in 2006) made a constantly updating feed cheap to deliver. | 12b3022c863d… | |
| 15 | verdict | Verdict: Rural last-mile retail distribution in Africa is No-go. The capital-duration mismatch that killed it has not changed. | 396c80948f2e… | |
| 14 | verdict | Verdict: Small modular nuclear reactors is Trigger pending. Licensing has crossed; first-of-a-kind cost and commercial operation have not. | c04449c7dc70… | |
| 13 | call | Call C18-bci-pivotal-trial (45%, resolves 2027-12-31): Synchron registers an interventional study with 'pivotal' in its title on ClinicalTrials.gov, first posted between 25 October 2026 and 31 December 2027. | 714f0ae06965… | |
| 12 | call | Call C19-glasses-open-app-channel (55%, resolves 2027-12-31): By 31 December 2027, Meta makes generally available a developer toolkit that lets any third-party developer publish an app that uses the camera of Ray-Ban Meta glasses, without per-developer approval. | 07b3f68fbef8… | |
| 11 | call | Call C17-zero-rates-return (5%, resolves 2028-01-31): The effective federal funds rate for December 2027 (FRED series FEDFUNDS) is below 1.00%. | 7fb54749c226… | |
| 10 | call | Call C16-truckload-recovery-holds (65%, resolves 2027-04-30): The average of the BLS truckload producer price index (PCU484121484121) for January-March 2027 is at least 5% above its January-March 2026 average. | b6098ff25f0e… | |
| 9 | call | Call C15-electricity-keeps-rising (80%, resolves 2027-10-31): The US city-average retail electricity price for September 2027 (BLS series APU000072610) is higher than for September 2026. | 05a5cd3ff52b… | |
| 8 | call | Call C14-medicare-dmht-codes-2027 (92%, resolves 2027-01-31): CMS publishes the CY 2027 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule final rule in the Federal Register by 31 January 2027, and it references HCPCS code G0552 (digital mental health treatment devices). | 3d47df364c6a… | |
| 7 | call | Call C13-supersonic-final-rule (50%, resolves 2027-12-31): The FAA publishes a final rule enabling civil supersonic flight over land (RIN 2120-AM15) in the Federal Register by 31 December 2027. | 8e48e2c08528… | |
| 6 | call | Call C12-faa-bvlos-final-rule (70%, resolves 2027-06-30): The FAA publishes a final rule for beyond-visual-line-of-sight drone operations (RIN 2120-AL82, new 14 CFR part 108) in the Federal Register by 30 June 2027. | 045eb79b7a8f… | |
| 5 | call | Call C5-rule-beats-naive (20%, resolves 2028-08-01): Scored in 2028, the board's admission rule applied to the six candidates on the 2026-08-01 board does better than the naive rule 'admit anything with a dated crossing'. | e43d27c86d22… | |
| 4 | call | Call C4-btm-power-crowded (45%, resolves 2027-12-31): By 31 December 2027, at least three well-capitalised companies or incumbent programmes have announced, contracted behind-the-meter generation serving third-party compute loads above 20 MW. | 0eaad24b4914… | |
| 3 | call | Call C3-us-credits-pulled-forward (30%, resolves 2027-12-31): At least one more US clean-energy tax credit deadline (sections 45X, 45Y, 48E, 45V or 45Z) is pulled forward or tightened, rather than extended, by enacted legislation before 31 December 2027. | 15805193a77f… | |
| 2 | call | Call C2-eu-ai-act-slips-again (55%, resolves 2028-01-31): The EU AI Act's high-risk obligations slip again beyond the December 2027 date set by the Digital Omnibus, or are materially narrowed before taking effect. | 214a75dea1dd… | |
| 1 | call | Call C1-sema-thicket (60%, resolves 2027-12-31): No secondary-patent thicket materially delays generic semaglutide beyond 2026 in at least three of the five 2026-expiry markets (India, Canada, China, Brazil, Turkey). | 408402c597b5… | |
| 0 | genesis | Idea Locator ripeness ledger. Calls, verdicts and resolutions are appended in order and never edited. Each entry carries the hash of the one before it. | 7f22efedd2e8… |