Case file: a category that formed
Why did A123 Systems go bankrupt, and when did LFP batteries become viable?
Formed since 2026-10-25 · ledger #41
EV volume crossed the scale cell makers needed in the mid-2010s.
Short answer
A123 Systems (2001) commercialised lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells, went public in 2009 and received a $249M federal grant, then filed for bankruptcy in October 2012 when electric-car demand lagged. CATL (2011) scaled LFP into the EV boom. World EV sales went from tens of thousands in 2011 to millions a year.
- Killing constraint
- Electric-vehicle production volume
E3 Device install base - Crossing
- 2015
World EV sales pass about half a million a year (IEA via OWID). - Who won
- CATL
founded 2011
Cell factories need volume to reach their costs; in 2012 there were not enough EVs to fill them.
The metric that moved
Electric cars sold worldwide per year (IEA, via Our World in Data)
2012 119,000 cars → 2025 21.2 M cars (178× better for the category)
Live series from Our World in Data, refreshed by the weekly job, last fetched 2026-10-25.
Data table
| Date | Electric cars sold worldwide per year (IEA, via Our World in Data) |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 21.2 M cars |
| 2024 | 17.5 M cars |
| 2023 | 13.7 M cars |
| 2022 | 10.2 M cars |
| 2021 | 6.6 M cars |
| 2020 | 2.98 M cars |
| 2019 | 2.08 M cars |
| 2018 | 2.05 M cars |
| 2017 | 1.2 M cars |
| 2016 | 780,000 cars |
| 2015 | 520,000 cars |
| 2014 | 330,000 cars |
| 2013 | 201,000 cars |
| 2012 | 119,000 cars |
| 2011 | 49,000 cars |
| 2010 | 7450 cars |
Graveyard
Companies that died proving people wanted this. Capital shown where it was disclosed.
| Company | Years | Capital | How it died | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A123 Systems | 2001–2012 | — included a 2009 IPO and a $249M US grant | Chapter 11, October 2012; assets bought by Wanxiang | source M |
Who won once the constraint crossed
- CATL (founded 2011) — the largest EV battery maker; major LFP supplier source
Related
- Behind-the-meter power for computeBlocked on a checkThe crossing looks real; the graveyard is asserted at cohort level and must be enumerated before a ripe call.Killed by: Storage cost and grid access
- Aquion EnergyNot a timing failureIts pitch depended on lithium-ion staying expensive.Killed by: Bet that lithium-ion stays expensive