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Is behind-the-meter power for data centers ripe?

Blocked on a check since 2026-10-25 · ledger #18

The crossing looks real; the graveyard is asserted at cohort level and must be enumerated before a ripe call.

Short answer

Grid interconnection queues stretch for years while compute demand surges, and stationary storage prices fell sharply in 2025, to about $70/kWh by BloombergNEF's survey as cited in 2026 research. Siting generation and storage at the data center sidesteps the queue. The open check: the companies said to have died trying this in the 2010s, at $400+/kWh storage, are asserted but not yet named.

Killing constraint
Storage cost and grid access
E1 Cost curve + E5 Legal permission / regulation
Crossing
2025-12
Storage price survey: about $70/kWh, down about 45% in a year (BloombergNEF, as cited in 2026 research).

On-site generation needs cheap storage to be firm, and it is only worth the trouble when grid connection is slow or scarce.

Graveyard

Asserted, not enumerated: the 2026-08-01 research names 'the 2010s microgrid cohort' and demand-response firms. Until named, funded companies that died on storage cost are sourced, this cannot be called ripe.

What changed, dated

  • Stationary storage price about $70/kWh, down about 45% year on year (BloombergNEF survey, as cited in the 2026-08-01 research; not independently checked). unlinked M

Dated calls

Each call is written to an append-only, hash-chained ledger before it resolves, with the probability, the date and the rule that decides it.

45%

By 31 December 2027, at least three well-capitalised companies or incumbent programmes have announced, contracted behind-the-meter generation serving third-party compute loads above 20 MW.

Open · resolves 2027-12-31 · registered 2026-10-25 · first stated 2026-08-01

Resolver
Manual: Count distinct companies with announced, contracted behind-the-meter generation for third-party compute load above 20 MW. Resolved by a scheduled review that appends the outcome and its evidence to the ledger.
Falsified if
Fewer than three such companies on the resolution date.
Why this probability
Tests whether the low-occupancy read behind the category is right. Below even odds because the window opened in 2025 and incumbents move slowly on contracted generation.

ledger #4 · 0eaad24b4914e5d4… · verify

Regulatory activity

Federal Register documents matched to this category, refreshed weekly. The dates are what an E5 (legal permission) crossing hangs on.

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