The slip corpus
How often do dated commitments (patent expiries, statutory sunsets, regulatory deadlines, plant start-ups) actually happen on the date announced? A category timed to a date inherits that date's reliability. Superseded dates vanish from the record the moment they are superseded; this table keeps them.
Base rates by class
| Class | n | Held | Late | Early | Killed | Pending | P(move) | Median slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 patent expiry to economic entry | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50% | 73 mo |
| S2 statutory sunsets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 87 mo |
| S3 regulatory deadlines | 16 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 82% | 24 mo |
| S4 plant and project start-ups | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 67% | 87 mo |
P(move) counts decided rows only (held, late, early, killed). The corpus is selection-biased toward dates that moved, because routine dates that hold are rarely written about, so every P(move) is an upper bound on the population rate. It is closer to the right conditioning for founders, who only care about dates big enough to build a company against. Download CSV.
Every commitment
| Class | Commitment | Announced | Actual / current | Outcome | Slip | Moves | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Lipitor (atorvastatin) US generic entry | 2011-11-30 | 2011-11-30 | held | +0 mo | 0 | source M |
| S1 | Singulair (montelukast) US generic entry | 2012-08-03 | 2012-08-03 | held | +0 mo | 0 | source M |
| S1 | Humira (adalimumab) US biosimilar entry Compound patent expired on schedule; secondary patents and settlements set the economic date. | 2016-12-31 | 2023-01-31 | late | +73 mo | 0 | source H |
| S1 | Revlimid (lenalidomide) US volume-unrestricted generic entry Volume-limited generics from March 2022 under settlements. | 2022-03-31 | 2026-01-31 | late | +46 mo | 0 | source M |
| S2 | IRA section 30D clean vehicle credit end date | 2032-12-31 | 2025-09-30 | early | -87 mo | 1 | source H |
| S2 | IRA 45Y/48E clean electricity credits, wind and solar Placed-in-service deadline for projects not under construction by July 2026. | 2032-12-31 | 2027-12-31 | early | -60 mo | 1 | source H |
| S2 | IRA 45X advanced manufacturing credit, wind components | 2032-12-31 | 2027-12-31 | early | -60 mo | 1 | source H |
| S2 | IRA section 25D residential clean energy credit | 2034-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | early | -108 mo | 1 | source H |
| S3 | REAL ID enforcement at TSA checkpoints | 2008-05-11 | 2025-05-07 | late | +204 mo | 6 | source H |
| S3 | US transition to ICD-10 coding | 2013-10-01 | 2015-10-01 | late | +24 mo | 2 | source M |
| S3 | US EMV liability shift for automated fuel dispensers Corrected 2026-10-25: the networks moved the date a second time, from October 2020 to April 2021. | 2017-10-01 | 2021-04-16 | late | +42 mo | 2 | source M |
| S3 | GDPR application | 2018-05-25 | 2018-05-25 | held | +0 mo | 0 | source H |
| S3 | PSD2 strong customer authentication for e-commerce | 2019-09-14 | 2020-12-31 | late | +15 mo | 1 | source H |
| S3 | DSCSA enhanced security: manufacturers and repackagers | 2023-11-27 | 2025-05-27 | late | +18 mo | 2 | source H |
| S3 | DSCSA enhanced security: wholesale distributors | 2023-11-27 | 2025-08-27 | late | +21 mo | 2 | source H |
| S3 | DSCSA enhanced security: dispensers with 26+ staff | 2023-11-27 | 2025-11-27 | late | +24 mo | 2 | source H |
| S3 | DSCSA enhanced security: small dispensers Current date not yet reached. | 2023-11-27 | 2026-11-27 | pending | +36 mo | 2 | source H |
| S3 | EU Deforestation Regulation: large and medium operators Postponed in 2024 and again in November 2025; current date not yet reached. | 2024-12-30 | 2026-12-30 | pending | +24 mo | 2 | source H |
| S3 | EU Deforestation Regulation: small and micro operators Corrected 2026-10-25: the original date for small operators was 30 June 2025. Current date not yet reached. | 2025-06-30 | 2027-06-30 | pending | +24 mo | 2 | source M |
| S3 | MiCA full application to crypto-asset service providers | 2024-12-30 | 2024-12-30 | held | +0 mo | 0 | source H |
| S3 | FDA laboratory-developed tests rule, phase 1 Vacated by a federal court in March 2025. | 2025-05-06 | killed | killed | — | 0 | source H |
| S3 | CSRD sustainability reporting, wave 2 Moved by the 2025 'stop-the-clock' directive. | 2026-01-01 | 2028-01-01 | pending | +24 mo | 1 | source M |
| S3 | SEC climate-related disclosure rule Stayed in 2024; the SEC voted to end its defence on 27 March 2025. | 2026-01-01 | killed | killed | — | 1 | source M |
| S3 | EU AI Act high-risk obligations Moved by the Digital Omnibus per 2026-08-01 research; call C2 tests a second move. | 2026-08-02 | 2027-12-01 | pending | +16 mo | 1 | source M |
| S4 | Vogtle unit 3 commercial operation | 2016-04-01 | 2023-07-31 | late | +87 mo | 5 | source H |
| S4 | Vogtle unit 4 commercial operation | 2017-04-01 | 2024-04-29 | late | +84 mo | 5 | source H |
| S4 | TSMC Arizona fab 1 volume production Corrected 2026-10-25: a 2023 announced delay to 2025 was reversed; TSMC reported volume production in Q4 2024. | 2024-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | held | +0 mo | 1 | source M |
| S4 | Intel Ohio fab 1 first production Corrected 2026-10-25: 2030-31 is Intel's current target (announced February 2025), not an actual date. | 2025-12-31 | 2030-12-31 | pending | +60 mo | 3 | source H |
Assembled in 2026-08-01 research and corrected on 2026-10-25 where marked. Slip is in whole months from the first announced date to the date in force; a commitment that moved more than once is recorded once at its total displacement, with the number of moves separate. 'Pending' rows have a current date that has not arrived, so their slip is not final.