Idea Locator

Which dead startup categories are worth trying again?

Each call names what killed the category, the metric that has moved since, the funded companies that died proving demand, and a dated prediction that resolves in public. Every call is hash-chained, so none can be quietly edited after the fact.

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The rule

A category is worth re-attempting when two things are true: funded companies already burned real money proving the demand, and the specific constraint that killed them has since crossed a threshold (cost, law, capability or install base). Webvan and Instacart are the canonical pair. How the rule was tested, and where it failed.

Ripe 1

The constraint crossed and funded companies died proving demand. The clock is running.

Trigger pending 6

A dated public event decides these. The board watches the source and resolves automatically where it can.

Blocked on a check 5

One named check decides each of these. Unknown is not the same as no.

No-go 6

Popular ideas whose blocker has not moved, or got worse. Waiting does not help yet.

I don't know 2

The named blocker never moved, or it crossed and the category died anyway. The board abstains.

Formed: the rule on history 19

Categories that died early, then formed once their binding constraint crossed. These are the backtest, not predictions.

Not timing failures 19

Famous “too early” stories that fail the test. If a competitor succeeded at the same time, the enabler existed.