Live call
Is driverless trucking viable again after Embark, Starsky and TuSimple?
Trigger pending since 2026-10-25 · ledger #31
One operator runs driverless freight; the federal rule that would make it routine is not final.
Short answer
Starsky Robotics shut down in 2020, Embark Trucks wound down in 2023, and TuSimple closed its US business and later left trucking altogether. Aurora began running driverless trucks commercially in Texas in 2025. Federal rules for driverless trucks are still unsettled: FMCSA's rulemaking on automated commercial vehicles (RIN 2126-AC17) has no final rule. That rule is the trigger the board watches.
- Killing constraint
- Driverless reliability and federal operating rules
E7 Algorithmic step + E5 Legal permission / regulation - Crossing
- pending
Final FMCSA rule for ADS-equipped commercial vehicles not yet published. - Who is in now
- Aurora Innovation
founded 2017
The software must be safe without a driver, and federal trucking rules (inspections, warning devices) assume a human in the cab.
Graveyard
Companies that died proving people wanted this. Capital shown where it was disclosed.
| Company | Years | Capital | How it died | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starsky Robotics | 2016–2020 | — | Ceased operations in 2020 after failing to raise money | source M |
| Embark Trucks | died 2023 | — | Wound down in March 2023, laying off 70% of staff, about 16 months after going public via SPAC | source M |
| TuSimple (US trucking) | 2015–2024 | — | Closed its US business, then pivoted to AI gaming as CreateAI (December 2024) | source M |
Who is in the category now
- Aurora Innovation (founded 2017) — commercial driverless trucking in Texas from 2025 source
What changed, dated
- FMCSA notice on the Safe Integration of Automated Driving Systems-Equipped Commercial Motor Vehicles (RIN 2126-AC17). source H
Regulatory activity
Federal Register documents matched to this category, refreshed weekly. The dates are what an E5 (legal permission) crossing hangs on.
- Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; Modernization of FMVSS No. 108 To Accommodate ADS-Equipped Vehicles
Proposed Rule · Transportation Department, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration · published 2026-10-26 · comments close 2026-11-25 - The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule III for Model Years 2022 to 2031 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks
Rule · Transportation Department, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration · published 2026-09-30 · effective 2026-11-30 - Updating and Expanding Guidance on Safe Development and Deployment of Automated Driving Systems
Notice · Transportation Department, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration · published 2026-07-31 · comments close 2027-07-31 - NHTSA Safety Research Portfolio Public Meeting: Fall 2026, and Automated Driving Systems Workshop
Notice · Transportation Department, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration · published 2026-10-07 - Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; Denial of a Petition for Rulemaking
Proposed Rule · Transportation Department, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration · published 2026-09-21 - AV Framework Updates and Request for Comments on Interim Guidance; Extension of Comment Period
Notice · Transportation Department, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration · published 2026-08-31 · comments close 2026-09-30 - Zoox-Grant of Temporary Exemption From Portions of Various Requirements of the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards for an Automated Driving System-Equipped Vehicle
Notice · Transportation Department, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration · published 2026-07-31 · effective 2026-07-31 - AV Framework Updates and Request for Comments on Interim Guidance
Notice · Transportation Department, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration · published 2026-07-31 · comments close 2026-08-31
Related
- Software freight brokerageTrigger pendingRates are recovering; the call on whether the recovery holds resolves from BLS data in 2027.Killed by: The truckload rate cycle
- Cruise (robotaxis)Not a timing failureWaymo ran and expanded paid driverless service in the same years.Killed by: Nothing was missing