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Is digital freight brokerage viable again after Convoy shut down?

Trigger pending since 2026-10-25 · ledger #62

Rates are recovering; the call on whether the recovery holds resolves from BLS data in 2027.

Short answer

Convoy automated truckload brokerage, raised hundreds of millions of dollars, and shut down in late 2023 during a long freight recession; Flexport bought its assets. The killer was the rate cycle, not the software. The board tracks the BLS producer price index for long-distance truckload freight; it rose about 18% between March and September 2026.

Killing constraint
The truckload rate cycle
E8 Capital availability
Crossing
pending
Sustained recovery in truckload rates (resolves from BLS data).

Brokers earn the spread between shipper and carrier rates; in a long freight recession the spread and volume both collapse.

The metric that moved

Producer price index: long-distance general freight trucking, truckload (BLS, via FRED)

Oct 2023 184 index → Sep 2026 219 index (barely moved)

Producer price index: long-distance general freight trucking, truckload (BLS, via FRED)150200201520172019202120232025Convoy shuts219 index

Live series from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), refreshed by the weekly job, last fetched 2026-10-25.

Data table
DateProducer price index: long-distance general freight trucking, truckload (BLS, via FRED)
Sep 2026219 index
Aug 2026210 index
Jul 2026203 index
Jun 2026198 index
May 2026203 index
Apr 2026201 index
Mar 2026191 index
Feb 2026183 index
Jan 2026181 index
Dec 2025181 index
Nov 2025189 index
Oct 2025185 index
Sep 2025186 index
Aug 2025182 index
Jul 2025181 index
Jun 2025168 index
May 2025179 index
Apr 2025175 index
Mar 2025166 index
Feb 2025179 index
Jan 2025182 index
Dec 2024172 index
Nov 2024160 index
Oct 2024166 index
Sep 2024172 index
Aug 2024177 index
Jul 2024190 index
Jun 2024183 index
May 2024182 index
Apr 2024173 index
Mar 2024173 index
Feb 2024178 index
Jan 2024179 index
Dec 2023178 index
Nov 2023187 index
Oct 2023184 index
Sep 2023182 index
Aug 2023173 index
Jul 2023179 index
Jun 2023190 index
May 2023193 index
Apr 2023184 index
Mar 2023202 index
Feb 2023194 index
Jan 2023187 index
Dec 2022201 index
Nov 2022196 index
Oct 2022198 index
Sep 2022198 index
Aug 2022200 index
Jul 2022204 index
Jun 2022203 index
May 2022211 index
Apr 2022210 index
Mar 2022211 index
Feb 2022208 index
Jan 2022198 index
Dec 2021188 index
Nov 2021183 index
Oct 2021174 index

Graveyard

Companies that died proving people wanted this. Capital shown where it was disclosed.

CompanyYearsCapitalHow it diedSource
Convoy2015–2023—Shut down in late 2023; assets and some staff acquired by Flexportsource M

What changed, dated

  • FMCSA proposes 'Transparency in Property Broker Transactions' (RIN 2126-AC63). source H

Dated calls

Each call is written to an append-only, hash-chained ledger before it resolves, with the probability, the date and the rule that decides it.

65%

The average of the BLS truckload producer price index (PCU484121484121) for January-March 2027 is at least 5% above its January-March 2026 average.

Open · resolves 2027-04-30 · registered 2026-10-25

Resolver
Automatic: FRED series PCU484121484121, the average of 2027-01 to 2027-03 is at or above the average of 2026-01 to 2026-03 × 1.05, using the first published values.
Falsified if
The January-March 2027 average is less than 1.05 times the January-March 2026 average.
Why this probability
The index was about 18% above its March 2026 level by September 2026. Freight rates mean-revert and the spike may be seasonal, so the call is well short of certain.

ledger #10 · b6098ff25f0e67a9… · verify

Regulatory activity

Federal Register documents matched to this category, refreshed weekly. The dates are what an E5 (legal permission) crossing hangs on.

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