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Live call

Is 15-minute grocery delivery coming back?

No-go since 2026-10-25 · ledger #70

The blocker was the price of money, and the fed funds rate is still above 3.5%.

Short answer

Gorillas, Getir, Buyk and Fridge No More raised large rounds in 2020-22 to deliver groceries in 15 minutes from dark stores. Buyk and Fridge No More collapsed in March 2022 when their funding was cut off, Gorillas sold itself to Getir that December, and Getir left the US, UK and Germany in 2024. Each order lost money and only cheap, plentiful capital covered it. The board's live metric is the fed funds rate, which is nowhere near its 2021 level.

Killing constraint
Near-zero cost of capital
E8 Capital availability

Dark stores and couriers on standby lose money per order at small basket sizes; the model only survived while capital was nearly free.

The metric that moved

Effective federal funds rate (Federal Reserve, via FRED)

Dec 2021 0.08 % → Sep 2026 3.75 % (46.9× worse for the category)

Effective federal funds rate (Federal Reserve, via FRED)0%2%4%201520172019202120232025below 1%: the zero-rate eraBuyk, Fridge No More foldGetir retreats3.75 %

Live series from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), refreshed by the weekly job, last fetched 2026-10-26.

Data table
DateEffective federal funds rate (Federal Reserve, via FRED)
Sep 20263.75 %
Aug 20263.63 %
Jul 20263.63 %
Jun 20263.63 %
May 20263.63 %
Apr 20263.64 %
Mar 20263.64 %
Feb 20263.64 %
Jan 20263.64 %
Dec 20253.72 %
Nov 20253.88 %
Oct 20254.09 %
Sep 20254.22 %
Aug 20254.33 %
Jul 20254.33 %
Jun 20254.33 %
May 20254.33 %
Apr 20254.33 %
Mar 20254.33 %
Feb 20254.33 %
Jan 20254.33 %
Dec 20244.48 %
Nov 20244.64 %
Oct 20244.83 %
Sep 20245.13 %
Aug 20245.33 %
Jul 20245.33 %
Jun 20245.33 %
May 20245.33 %
Apr 20245.33 %
Mar 20245.33 %
Feb 20245.33 %
Jan 20245.33 %
Dec 20235.33 %
Nov 20235.33 %
Oct 20235.33 %
Sep 20235.33 %
Aug 20235.33 %
Jul 20235.12 %
Jun 20235.08 %
May 20235.06 %
Apr 20234.83 %
Mar 20234.65 %
Feb 20234.57 %
Jan 20234.33 %
Dec 20224.1 %
Nov 20223.78 %
Oct 20223.08 %
Sep 20222.56 %
Aug 20222.33 %
Jul 20221.68 %
Jun 20221.21 %
May 20220.77 %
Apr 20220.33 %
Mar 20220.2 %
Feb 20220.08 %
Jan 20220.08 %
Dec 20210.08 %
Nov 20210.08 %
Oct 20210.08 %

Graveyard

Companies that died proving people wanted this. Capital shown where it was disclosed.

CompanyYearsCapitalHow it diedSource
Buykdied 2022—Ceased operations and filed Chapter 11, March 2022, after its founders' funding was cut off by sanctionssource M
Fridge No Moredied 2022—Shut down, March 2022, after a sale of its assets fell throughsource M
Gorillas2020–2024—Acquired by Getir in December 2022; brand ended in 2024source M
Getir (US, UK, Germany)2015–2024—Announced in April 2024 it was leaving the US, UK and Germanysource M

Dated calls

Each call is written to an append-only, hash-chained ledger before it resolves, with the probability, the date and the rule that decides it.

5%

The effective federal funds rate for December 2027 (FRED series FEDFUNDS) is below 1.00%.

Open · resolves 2028-01-31 · registered 2026-10-25

Resolver
Automatic: FRED series FEDFUNDS, the 2027-12 observation is below 1.00, using the first published values.
Falsified if
The December 2027 monthly average is 1.00% or higher.
Why this probability
The rate is 3.75% in September 2026. A return below 1% within 15 months would take a deep recession; that is what 15-minute delivery would need to come back as it was.

ledger #11 · 7fb54749c2262552… · verify

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