Case file: a category that formed
Why did deCODE genetics go bankrupt, and when did genome sequencing get cheap enough?
Formed since 2026-10-25 · ledger #52
Sequencing cost collapsed after 2008; population genomics became routine.
Short answer
deCODE (1996) set out to read the genetics of a nation, Iceland. It filed for Chapter 11 in 2009 and Amgen bought it in 2012 for $415M. NHGRI measured the cost of sequencing a genome at about $95M in 2001, about $70,000 in 2009 and a few hundred dollars by 2022. 23andMe (2006) built a consumer business on the same curve, then filed for bankruptcy itself in 2025.
- Killing constraint
- Cost of reading DNA
E1 Cost curve - Crossing
- 2008
Next-generation sequencing cuts NHGRI's cost per genome from $7.1M (2007) to $342,500 (2008). - Who won
- 23andMe
founded 2006
At millions of dollars per genome, population-scale genetics could not pay back.
The metric that moved
Cost to sequence a human genome (NHGRI, via Our World in Data)
2009 $70,333 → 2022 $525 (134× better for the category)
Live series from Our World in Data (NHGRI measured cost, not vendor list prices), refreshed by the weekly job, last fetched 2026-10-25.
Data table
| Date | Cost to sequence a human genome (NHGRI, via Our World in Data) |
|---|---|
| 2022 | $525 |
| 2021 | $454 |
| 2020 | $512 |
| 2019 | $606 |
| 2018 | $1232 |
| 2017 | $1015 |
| 2016 | $1176 |
| 2015 | $1245 |
| 2014 | $4008 |
| 2013 | $5096 |
| 2012 | $5901 |
| 2011 | $7743 |
| 2010 | $29,092 |
| 2009 | $70,333 |
| 2008 | $342,502 |
| 2007 | $7.15 M |
| 2006 | $10.5 M |
| 2005 | $13.8 M |
| 2004 | $18.5 M |
| 2003 | $40.2 M |
| 2002 | $61.4 M |
| 2001 | $95.3 M |
Graveyard
Companies that died proving people wanted this. Capital shown where it was disclosed.
| Company | Years | Capital | How it died | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| deCODE genetics | 1996–2009 | — | Chapter 11, November 2009; acquired by Amgen for $415M in 2012 | source M |
Who won once the constraint crossed
- 23andMe (founded 2006) — consumer genotyping; filed for Chapter 11 in March 2025 source
What changed, dated
- 23andMe filed for Chapter 11: a formed category is not the same as a durable company. source M
Related
- Consumer genomics and health testingI don't knowThe named constraint crossed long ago and the category died anyway, so the rule abstains.Killed by: Cost of sequencing (named, but not binding)
- Broad clinical genetic testingBlocked on a checkCost keeps falling; the binding constraint, reimbursement, has no public series yet.Killed by: Insurer reimbursement for broad panels