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Is consumer genomics viable again after 23andMe and Arivale?

I don't know since 2026-10-25 · ledger #24

The named constraint crossed long ago and the category died anyway, so the rule abstains.

Short answer

Reading a whole genome cost about $95M in 2001 and a few hundred dollars by 2022 (NHGRI). Yet Arivale, a genome-based wellness subscription, closed in 2019, and 23andMe filed for bankruptcy in March 2025. When the named constraint has fallen by a factor of 100,000 and the category still dies, cost was not the binding constraint, and the board does not know what is.

Killing constraint
Cost of sequencing (named, but not binding)
E1 Cost curve
Capital burned proving demand
$50M
2 named companies

Cost was the obvious blocker and it collapsed. Repeat purchase and clinical usefulness are the likelier blockers, and neither has a public metric.

The metric that moved

Cost to sequence a human genome (NHGRI, via Our World in Data)

2015 $1245 → 2022 $525 (2.4× better for the category)

Cost to sequence a human genome (NHGRI, via Our World in Data)$1000$10k$100k$1M$10M$100M20012006201120162021Arivale closes23andMe Ch. 112001: $95.3 M2002: $61.4 M2003: $40.2 M2004: $18.5 M2005: $13.8 M2006: $10.5 M2007: $7.15 M2008: $342,5022009: $70,3332010: $29,0922011: $77432012: $59012013: $50962014: $40082015: $12452016: $11762017: $10152018: $12322019: $6062020: $5122021: $4542022: $525$525

Live series from Our World in Data (NHGRI measured cost, not vendor list prices), refreshed by the weekly job, last fetched 2026-10-25.

Data table
DateCost to sequence a human genome (NHGRI, via Our World in Data)
2022$525
2021$454
2020$512
2019$606
2018$1232
2017$1015
2016$1176
2015$1245
2014$4008
2013$5096
2012$5901
2011$7743
2010$29,092
2009$70,333
2008$342,502
2007$7.15 M
2006$10.5 M
2005$13.8 M
2004$18.5 M
2003$40.2 M
2002$61.4 M
2001$95.3 M

Graveyard

Companies that died proving people wanted this. Capital shown where it was disclosed, $50M in total.

CompanyYearsCapitalHow it diedSource
Arivaledied 2019$50M
about $50M or more		Closed abruptly in April 2019, saying its service cost more than customers would paysource M
23andMe2006–2025—Chapter 11, March 2025source M

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