Live call
Is obesity care built on generic semaglutide viable outside the US?
Blocked on a check since 2026-10-25 · ledger #46
The compound patents lapse in 2026; the secondary-patent thicket check has not been run.
Short answer
Weight-loss drugs before GLP-1s failed commercially: Orexigen filed for Chapter 11 in 2018 and Vivus in 2020. Semaglutide works, at branded prices. Its compound patent protection lapses during 2026 in several large markets, including India, Canada, China, Brazil and Turkey. Whether secondary patents delay real generic launches there is the check, and call C1 is on the ledger.
- Killing constraint
- Drug price, set by patent protection
E5 Legal permission / regulation - Crossing
- 2026
Semaglutide compound protection lapses in several large markets (2026-08-01 research).
Care built around a drug only works at scale when the drug is cheap; that depends on the last blocking patent, not the headline expiry.
Graveyard
Companies that died proving people wanted this. Capital shown where it was disclosed.
What changed, dated
- Humira precedent: the compound patent expired in 2016 but US biosimilars launched only in January 2023, after secondary patents and settlements. source M
Dated calls
Each call is written to an append-only, hash-chained ledger before it resolves, with the probability, the date and the rule that decides it.
No secondary-patent thicket materially delays generic semaglutide beyond 2026 in at least three of the five 2026-expiry markets (India, Canada, China, Brazil, Turkey).
Open · resolves 2027-12-31 · registered 2026-10-25 · first stated 2026-08-01
- Resolver
- Manual: Count the five markets with at least one generic or biosimilar semaglutide approved and commercially launched on the resolution date, from national regulator registries. Resolved by a scheduled review that appends the outcome and its evidence to the ledger.
- Falsified if
- Fewer than three of the five markets have a launched generic by 31 December 2027. Settlement-capped volumes count only if the product is purchasable at retail.
- Why this probability
- Not higher than 60% because two of four patent-expiry entry dates in the slip corpus moved by years even though the legal date held, and the check that would settle it has not been run.
ledger #1 · 408402c597b588ef… · verify
Regulatory activity
Federal Register documents matched to this category, refreshed weekly. The dates are what an E5 (legal permission) crossing hangs on.
- Product-Specific Guidances; Revised Draft Guidances for Industry; Availability
Notice · Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration · published 2026-07-29 · comments close 2026-09-28 - List of Bulk Drug Substances for Which There Is a Clinical Need Under Section 503B of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; Extension of Comment Period
Notice · Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration · published 2026-06-26 · comments close 2026-05-01 - List of Bulk Drug Substances for Which There Is a Clinical Need Under Section 503B of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act
Notice · Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration · published 2026-05-01 · comments close 2026-06-30 - Determination That OZEMPIC (Semaglutide) Solution, 2 Milligrams Per 1.5 Milliliters Was Not Withdrawn From Sale for Reasons of Safety or Effectiveness
Notice · Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration · published 2026-04-30 - Product-Specific Guidances; Draft and Revised Draft Guidances for Industry; Availability
Notice · Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration · published 2026-02-27 · comments close 2026-04-28 - Jeremy Spencer Brown: Final Debarment Order
Notice · Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration · published 2026-02-12 - Product-Specific Guidances; Draft and Revised Draft Guidances for Industry; Availability
Notice · Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration · published 2025-12-05 · comments close 2026-02-03 - Product-Specific Guidances; Draft and Revised Draft Guidances for Industry; Availability
Notice · Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration · published 2025-10-02 · comments close 2025-12-01