Live call
Are prescription digital therapeutics viable again after Pear Therapeutics went bankrupt?
Ripe since 2026-10-25 · ledger #53
The payment code that was missing took effect 1 January 2025, and three funded companies died proving demand.
Short answer
Pear Therapeutics had FDA-authorised apps that doctors prescribed, and filed for bankruptcy in April 2023, saying payers would not reimburse them. Medicare had no code to pay for prescription software. CMS created three: HCPCS G0552-G0554 for digital mental health treatment devices took effect on 1 January 2025, 21 months after Pear filed.
- Killing constraint
- A Medicare payment code for prescription software
E5 Legal permission / regulation - Crossing
- 2025-01-01
CY 2025 Physician Fee Schedule final rule: HCPCS G0552, G0553, G0554 for digital mental health treatment devices.
A doctor could prescribe an FDA-authorised app, but Medicare had no billing code for supplying it or managing the patient on it.
Graveyard
Companies that died proving people wanted this. Capital shown where it was disclosed.
| Company | Years | Capital | How it died | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pear Therapeutics | died 2023 | — | Chapter 11, 7 April 2023, with a plan to sell its assets | source H |
| Akili valued at about $1B at its 2022 SPAC listing | died 2024 | — | Sold to Virtual Therapeutics for about $34M in July 2024, after struggling to win insurance coverage | source M |
| Better Therapeutics | died 2024 | — | Shut down operations and terminated employees, March 2024 | source M |
Capital is left blank where we could not confirm a figure from a stable source; the companies, dates and outcomes are sourced.
What changed, dated
Dated calls
Each call is written to an append-only, hash-chained ledger before it resolves, with the probability, the date and the rule that decides it.
CMS publishes the CY 2027 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule final rule in the Federal Register by 31 January 2027, and it references HCPCS code G0552 (digital mental health treatment devices).
Open · resolves 2027-01-31 · registered 2026-10-25
- Resolver
- Automatic: Federal Register API, document type RULE, full text contains “G0552”, agency centers-for-medicare-medicaid-services, title contains “CY 2027” and “Physician Fee Schedule”, published 2026-10-25 or later.
- Falsified if
- No CY 2027 Physician Fee Schedule final rule referencing G0552 is published by 31 January 2027.
- Why this probability
- The codes appeared in both the CY 2025 and CY 2026 final rules, and the fee schedule final rule is published every November or December. The residual risk is the codes being dropped or the rule being late.
ledger #8 · 3d47df364c6aa5fc… · verify
Regulatory activity
Federal Register documents matched to this category, refreshed weekly. The dates are what an E5 (legal permission) crossing hangs on.
- Medicare and Medicaid Programs; CY 2026 Payment Policies Under the Physician Fee Schedule and Other Changes to Part B Payment and Coverage Policies; Medicare Shared Savings Program Requirements; and Medicare Prescription Drug Inflation Rebate Program; Correction
Rule · Health and Human Services Department, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services · published 2026-03-12 · effective 2026-03-12 - Medicare Program: Hospital Outpatient Prospective Payment and Ambulatory Surgical Center Payment Systems; Quality Reporting Programs; Overall Hospital Quality Star Rating; Hospital Price Transparency; and Notice of Closure of a Teaching Hospital and Opportunity To Apply for Available Slots
Rule · Health and Human Services Department, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services · published 2025-11-25 · effective 2026-01-01, comments close 2026-01-20 - Medicare and Medicaid Programs; CY 2026 Payment Policies Under the Physician Fee Schedule and Other Changes to Part B Payment and Coverage Policies; Medicare Shared Savings Program Requirements; and Medicare Prescription Drug Inflation Rebate Program
Rule · Health and Human Services Department, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services · published 2025-11-05 · effective 2026-01-01 - Medicare and Medicaid Programs; CY 2026 Payment Policies Under the Physician Fee Schedule and Other Changes to Part B Payment and Coverage Policies; Medicare Shared Savings Program Requirements; and Medicare Prescription Drug Inflation Rebate Program
Proposed Rule · Health and Human Services Department, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services · published 2025-07-16 · comments close 2025-09-12 - Medicare and Medicaid Programs; CY 2025 Payment Policies Under the Physician Fee Schedule and Other Changes to Part B Payment and Coverage Policies; Medicare Shared Savings Program Requirements; Medicare Prescription Drug Inflation Rebate Program; and Medicare Overpayments; and Appeal Rights for Certain Changes in Patient Status; Corrections and Correcting Amendment
Rule · Health and Human Services Department, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services · published 2025-05-16 · effective 2025-05-16
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