Live call
Can you build a space business priced off Starship's launch costs yet?
No-go since 2026-10-25 · ledger #64
No one can buy launch at the assumed price yet; announced is not measured.
Short answer
Many space business plans assume launch below $200 per kilogram once Starship flies commercially. That is a target, not a price anyone can buy today. The last measured step was Falcon 9, which NASA put at about $2,720/kg advertised. Until third parties buy Starship launches at a published price, a plan priced off it is priced off a forecast.
- Killing constraint
- Measured, purchasable launch price
E1 Cost curve
Vendor targets lead measured prices by years; only a price third parties pay counts as a crossing.
The metric that moved
Cost to launch one kilogram to low Earth orbit (NASA estimate, 2018)
1981 $54,500/kg → 2010 $2720/kg (20.0× better for the category)
Hand-collected from NASA (Jones 2018); refreshed by review, not automatically.
Two points from one NASA paper: Space Shuttle (first flight 1981) at about $54,500/kg and Falcon 9 (first flight 2010) at its advertised $2,720/kg. Advertised prices are list prices, not audited costs.
Data table
| Date | Cost to launch one kilogram to low Earth orbit (NASA estimate, 2018) |
|---|---|
| 2010 | $2720/kg |
| 1981 | $54,500/kg |
Graveyard
The relevant graveyard is historical (Teledesic, Iridium) and lives on their pages. This entry is a warning against pricing off announced numbers.
What changed, dated
- NASA estimate: Falcon 9 advertised $2,720/kg to LEO. source H