Case file: a category that formed
Why did Teledesic fail, and when did low-orbit satellite internet become viable?
Formed since 2026-10-25 · ledger #56
Reusable-era launch prices fell about 20x; Starlink followed.
Short answer
Teledesic (1990), backed by Craig McCaw and Bill Gates, planned hundreds of low-orbit satellites for global internet and suspended work in 2002. At Space Shuttle-era launch prices, about $54,500 per kilogram by NASA's estimate, a constellation could not pay back. Falcon 9 advertised about $2,720/kg; SpaceX started Starlink in 2015.
- Killing constraint
- Launch cost per kilogram
E1 Cost curve - Crossing
- 2010
Falcon 9 first flight; advertised price about $2,720/kg to LEO. - Who won
- Starlink (SpaceX)
founded 2015
A broadband constellation needs thousands of satellites replaced every few years; launch cost decides whether it pays.
The metric that moved
Cost to launch one kilogram to low Earth orbit (NASA estimate, 2018)
1981 $54,500/kg → 2010 $2720/kg (20.0× better for the category)
Hand-collected from NASA (Jones 2018); refreshed by review, not automatically.
Two points from one NASA paper: Space Shuttle (first flight 1981) at about $54,500/kg and Falcon 9 (first flight 2010) at its advertised $2,720/kg. Advertised prices are list prices, not audited costs.
Data table
| Date | Cost to launch one kilogram to low Earth orbit (NASA estimate, 2018) |
|---|---|
| 2010 | $2720/kg |
| 1981 | $54,500/kg |
Graveyard
Companies that died proving people wanted this. Capital shown where it was disclosed.
| Company | Years | Capital | How it died | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teledesic | 1990–2002 | — | Suspended satellite construction in 2002 | source M |
Who won once the constraint crossed
- Starlink (SpaceX) (founded 2015) — constellation programme announced 2015; service from 2020 source
What changed, dated
- NASA: the Space Shuttle cost about $54,500/kg to LEO; Falcon 9 advertises $2,720/kg, a factor of 20. source H
Related
- Satellite phonesFormedThe network outlived its financing; cheaper launch and smaller radios made satellite service a business.Killed by: Launch cost and handset size
- Businesses priced off Starship launch costsNo-goNo one can buy launch at the assumed price yet; announced is not measured.Killed by: Measured, purchasable launch price