Idea Locator

Live call

Is supersonic passenger flight viable again now the US overland ban may be lifted?

Trigger pending since 2026-10-25 · ledger #65

The rule that would reopen overland routes is proposed, not final.

Short answer

Concorde retired in 2003 and Aerion Supersonic shut down in 2021 after failing to raise production money. Since 1973 US rules have banned civil supersonic flight over land, which removes most routes. A June 2025 executive order told the FAA to lift the ban, and the FAA proposed doing so on 2 July 2026 (RIN 2120-AM15). A final rule is the trigger.

Killing constraint
US ban on civil supersonic flight over land
E5 Legal permission / regulation
Crossing
pending
FAA proposed rule 'Enabling Supersonic Overland Flight' (2 July 2026); final rule not yet published.
Who is in now
Boom Supersonic
founded 2014

14 CFR 91.817 limits civil aircraft to below Mach 1 over the US, so a supersonic jet can only fly fast over water.

Graveyard

Companies that died proving people wanted this. Capital shown where it was disclosed.

CompanyYearsCapitalHow it diedSource
Aerion Supersonic2003–2021—Shut down in May 2021 after failing to secure production fundingsource M
Concorde (BAC/Aerospatiale)
state-backed programme, not a startup		1976–2003—Retired in 2003source H

Who is in the category now

  • Boom Supersonic (founded 2014) — developing the Overture airliner source

What changed, dated

  • Executive Order 14304, Leading the World in Supersonic Flight, directs the FAA to repeal the overland ban. source H
  • FAA proposed rule 'Enabling Supersonic Overland Flight' (RIN 2120-AM15). source H

Dated calls

Each call is written to an append-only, hash-chained ledger before it resolves, with the probability, the date and the rule that decides it.

50%

The FAA publishes a final rule enabling civil supersonic flight over land (RIN 2120-AM15) in the Federal Register by 31 December 2027.

Open · resolves 2027-12-31 · registered 2026-10-25

Resolver
Automatic: Federal Register API, document type RULE, RIN 2120-AM15, published 2026-10-25 or later.
Falsified if
No final rule under RIN 2120-AM15 is published by 31 December 2027.
Why this probability
Strong political backing, but the proposal only appeared in July 2026 and noise rules draw heavy comment; 18 months from proposal to final is fast for a contested aviation rule.

ledger #7 · 8e48e2c085288073… · verify

Regulatory activity

Federal Register documents matched to this category, refreshed weekly. The dates are what an E5 (legal permission) crossing hangs on.

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