Live call
Is drone delivery about to become viable in the US?
Trigger pending since 2026-10-25 · ledger #32
The enabling rule is proposed but not final. The board resolves its call automatically from the Federal Register.
Short answer
US drone delivery has been capped by waivers: each operator needs FAA exemptions to fly beyond the pilot's line of sight. The FAA proposed Part 108 to make those flights routine in August 2025 (RIN 2120-AL82), and a June 2025 executive order told it to finish quickly. As of 25 October 2026 no final rule has been published, so the trigger is pending.
- Killing constraint
- Routine beyond-visual-line-of-sight flight
E5 Legal permission / regulation - Crossing
- pending
Final rule for 14 CFR part 108 (RIN 2120-AL82) not yet published. - Who is in now
- Zipline
founded 2014
Without a standing rule, every delivery network needs case-by-case exemptions, which caps scale.
Graveyard
Not enumerated yet. Before calling this category ripe, the board needs named, funded drone-delivery companies that died on the waiver regime, with sources.
Who is in the category now
What changed, dated
Dated calls
Each call is written to an append-only, hash-chained ledger before it resolves, with the probability, the date and the rule that decides it.
The FAA publishes a final rule for beyond-visual-line-of-sight drone operations (RIN 2120-AL82, new 14 CFR part 108) in the Federal Register by 30 June 2027.
Open · resolves 2027-06-30 · registered 2026-10-25
- Resolver
- Automatic: Federal Register API, document type RULE, RIN 2120-AL82, published 2026-10-25 or later.
- Falsified if
- No final rule under RIN 2120-AL82 is published in the Federal Register by 30 June 2027.
- Why this probability
- An executive order demands it and the proposal has been out since August 2025, but the rule already missed the order's timeline, and in the slip corpus most regulatory dates moved late.
ledger #6 · 045eb79b7a8f8600… · verify
Regulatory activity
Federal Register documents matched to this category, refreshed weekly. The dates are what an E5 (legal permission) crossing hangs on.
- Requirements for Interference-Tolerant Radio Altimeter Systems
Rule · Transportation Department, Federal Aviation Administration · published 2026-07-31 · effective 2026-09-29 - Enabling Supersonic Overland Flight
Proposed Rule · Transportation Department, Federal Aviation Administration · published 2026-07-02 · comments close 2026-08-17 - Designation-Restrict the Operation of Unmanned Aircraft in Close Proximity to a Fixed Site Facility
Proposed Rule · Transportation Department, Federal Aviation Administration · published 2026-05-06 · comments close 2026-07-06 - Normalizing Unmanned Aircraft Systems Beyond Visual Line of Sight Operations; Reopening of Comment Period; Denial of Extension
Proposed Rule · Transportation Department, Federal Aviation Administration · published 2026-02-10 - Normalizing Unmanned Aircraft Systems Beyond Visual Line of Sight Operations; Reopening of Comment Period
Proposed Rule · Transportation Department, Federal Aviation Administration · published 2026-01-28 · comments close 2026-02-11 - Normalizing Unmanned Aircraft Systems Beyond Visual Line of Sight Operations; Denial of Extension of Comment Period
Proposed Rule · Transportation Department, Federal Aviation Administration, Homeland Security Department, Transportation Security Administration · published 2025-09-29 - Normalizing Unmanned Aircraft Systems Beyond Visual Line of Sight Operations
Proposed Rule · Transportation Department, Federal Aviation Administration, Homeland Security Department, Transportation Security Administration · published 2025-08-07 · comments close 2025-10-06
Related
- Supersonic passenger flightTrigger pendingThe rule that would reopen overland routes is proposed, not final.Killed by: US ban on civil supersonic flight over land
- Electric air taxis (eVTOL)I don't knowThe regulatory blocker crossed and leaders still failed, so the rule abstains.Killed by: Powered-lift rules (named, but not binding)