Live call
Are implantable brain-computer interfaces close to approval for patients?
Trigger pending since 2026-10-25 · ledger #38
Early feasibility studies are running; no pivotal trial is registered yet.
Short answer
Cyberkinetics took the BrainGate implant into its first human trial and sold off its BrainGate business and assets in 2008-2009 without a path to market. Synchron, Neuralink, Paradromics and Precision Neuroscience now have implants in human studies. The dated trigger is a pivotal trial, the last step before FDA approval; the board watches ClinicalTrials.gov for one.
- Killing constraint
- A regulatory path for permanent implants
E5 Legal permission / regulation - Crossing
- pending
First pivotal trial of a permanent BCI implant registered. - Who is in now
- Synchron
founded None
A BCI needs proof of long-term safety and benefit in a pivotal trial before premarket approval; feasibility studies are not enough.
Graveyard
Companies that died proving people wanted this. Capital shown where it was disclosed.
| Company | Years | Capital | How it died | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyberkinetics Neurotechnology Systems | died 2009 | — | Sold its BrainGate business and other assets in 2008-2009 | source M |
Who is in the category now
Dated calls
Each call is written to an append-only, hash-chained ledger before it resolves, with the probability, the date and the rule that decides it.
Synchron registers an interventional study with 'pivotal' in its title on ClinicalTrials.gov, first posted between 25 October 2026 and 31 December 2027.
Open · resolves 2027-12-31 · registered 2026-10-25
- Resolver
- Automatic: ClinicalTrials.gov API, an interventional study sponsored by Synchron, first posted on or after 2026-10-25, with “pivotal” in its title.
- Falsified if
- No such Synchron study is first posted by 31 December 2027.
- Why this probability
- Synchron has said it is preparing a pivotal trial, but device pivotal trials often slip, and the registered title may not use the word 'pivotal', which this resolver requires.
ledger #13 · 714f0ae06965a211… · verify
Trials to watch
Studies on ClinicalTrials.gov from the companies in this category, refreshed weekly.
- NCT07543367 — INdependence Through Endovascular Neuroprosthetic Technology (INTENT): an Early Feasibility Study
Synchron, Inc. · RECRUITING · first posted 2026-04-21 - NCT07533903 — Functional Outcomes and Control Using Synchron BCI - Australia
Synchron, Inc. · RECRUITING · first posted 2026-04-16 - NCT07446114 — Functional Outcomes and Control Using Synchron BCI - Canada
Synchron, Inc. · RECRUITING · first posted 2026-03-03 - NCT07357428 — Connect-One: Early Feasibility Study of Connexus® Brain-Computer Interface (BCI)
Paradromics · RECRUITING · first posted 2026-01-22 - NCT07224256 — VOICE: An Early Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for Communication Restoration
Neuralink Corp · RECRUITING · first posted 2025-11-04 - NCT07127172 — GB-PRIME: An Early Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices
Neuralink Corp · RECRUITING · first posted 2025-08-17 - NCT06992596 — UAE-PRIME: A Feasibility Study of a Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices
Neuralink Corp · RECRUITING · first posted 2025-05-28 - NCT06710626 — Control of Assistive Devices Via Brain-Computer Interface Technology
Neuralink Corp · ENROLLING_BY_INVITATION · first posted 2024-11-29 - NCT06700304 — CAN-PRIME: Precise Robotically Implanted Brain-Computer Interface for the Control of External Devices
Neuralink Corp · RECRUITING · first posted 2024-11-21 - NCT06429735 — Precise Robotically IMplanted Brain-Computer InterfacE
Neuralink Corp · RECRUITING · first posted 2024-05-28