Austin Ahlman
Independent candidate for Nebraska's 1st congressional district · general election Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026
Independent Challenger
Austin Ahlman is running for Nebraska's 1st congressional district in the Nov. 3, 2026 general election and filed with the FEC as an independent. As of , Kalshi prices Austin Ahlman’s chance of winning at 1%. The campaign has reported raising $106K and had $24K in cash on hand through Oct. 14, 2026.
Prediction markets
24h change: ±0 pts · bid 0.0¢ · ask 2.0¢ · last trade 1.0¢
“Will Austin Ahlman win the House race for NE-01?”
Thin market: under $25,000 traded in total, so small trades can move this price a lot.
Source: Kalshi market KXHOUSERACE, contract KXHOUSERACE-NE01-26-AAHL. Total volume 4,179 contracts. Read .
No Polymarket market listed Austin Ahlman or an independent in this race as of .
Odds over time
Daily closing prices from each platform's price-history endpoint, then this tracker's hourly reads for the last 14 days. Stored in data/history.csv.
The whole race, as the markets price it
NE-01 House winner?
| Outcome | Implied chance |
|---|---|
| Mike Flood | 80.5% |
| Chris Backemeyer | 18% |
| Austin Ahlman | 1% |
Source: Kalshi KXHOUSERACE; read .
Campaign money
Source: FEC candidate summary H6NE01150 (bulk file weball26), reports through Oct. 14, 2026; file published . Figures cover the 2025–26 two-year period and include only what the campaign itself reported.
Money in this race
Candidates the race's prediction markets list, with what each campaign reported to the FEC.
| Party | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Flood | R | $2.8M | $860K |
| Chris Backemeyer | D | $1.2M | $355K |
| Austin Ahlman | I | $106K | $24K |
Source: FEC candidate summaries (bulk file weball26). Party labels from the FEC, or from the market where the FEC record has none.
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How these numbers are made: methodology. Something wrong? Report a correction.