Can independents win in 2026?

Live prediction-market odds and campaign money for every independent candidate for Congress that Kalshi or Polymarket lists, and a party-line score for every member of Congress. Neutral, sourced, updated hourly.

Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3: 9 days

Will independents hold the balance of power?

Polymarket

How many Independents will be elected to Congress?

056%

127.5%

212%

34%

4+4.2%

Source: Polymarket how-many-independents-will-be-elected-to-congress; read Oct. 25, 2026, 21:50 UTC.

Kalshi

How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

At least 134%

At least 215.5%

At least 37.5%

At least 44.5%

Source: Kalshi KXINDCOUNT; read Oct. 25, 2026, 21:50 UTC.

Kalshi, by chamber

How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?

At least 126.5%

At least 29.5%

At least 37.5%

How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms?

At least 124%

At least 210.5%

At least 35%

Will any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026?

42% yes

Source: Kalshi series KXISENATEWON, KXIHOUSEWON, KXUSINDEPENDENTCONGRESS; read Oct. 25, 2026, 21:50 UTC.

For context, Polymarket's “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?”: Democratic Party 65.5%, Republican Party 34.5%. (source, read Oct. 25, 2026, 21:50 UTC)

The independents, by market odds

11 independent candidates appear in 2026 House or Senate markets. Together they report $27.5M raised. * Polymarket's market asks whether any independent wins that race.

Dan Osborn I-NE

Nebraska U.S. Senate · INC '26 slate

Kalshi 25.5% ▲ 1.5
Polymarket 25.5%*

Raised $11.0M · cash $2.0M (FEC, through Oct. 14, 2026)

Bill Hill I-AK

Alaska at-large U.S. House seat · INC '26 slate

Kalshi 20.5% ▼ 0.5
Polymarket 19.1%

Raised $2.6M · cash $118K (FEC, through Oct. 14, 2026)

Seth Bodnar I-MT

Montana U.S. Senate · INC '26 slate

Kalshi 8.2% ▲ 0.1
Polymarket 7.4%*

Raised $4.9M · cash $581K (FEC, through Oct. 14, 2026)

Kevin Kiley I-CA

California's 6th congressional district · INC '26 slate

Kalshi 6.2% ▼ 1.4

Raised $3.7M · cash $35K (FEC, through Oct. 14, 2026)

Todd Achilles I-ID

Idaho U.S. Senate · INC '26 slate

Kalshi 4.5% ▼ 0.5
Polymarket 3.5%

Raised $1.9M · cash $196K (FEC, through Oct. 14, 2026)

Brian Bengs I-SD

South Dakota U.S. Senate · INC '26 slate

Kalshi 4.5% ▲ 0.5
Polymarket 4.5%

Raised $1.9M · cash $70K (FEC, through Oct. 14, 2026)

Chris Getty I-IL

Illinois's 4th congressional district

Kalshi 3% ▼ 2.0

Raised $413K · cash $103K (FEC, through Oct. 14, 2026)

Austin Ahlman I-NE

Nebraska's 1st congressional district

Kalshi 1% ±0

Raised $106K · cash $24K (FEC, through Oct. 14, 2026)

Michael Bridgford I-IA

Iowa's 1st congressional district

Kalshi 0.5% ▼ 0.5

Raised $338K · cash $77K (FEC, through Oct. 14, 2026)

Mayra Macías I-IL

Illinois's 4th congressional district

Kalshi 0.5% ▼ 1.5

Raised $308K · cash $6,945 (FEC, through Sept. 30, 2026)

Sarah Zabel I-ID

Idaho's 1st congressional district · INC '26 slate

No market lists this candidate

Raised $272K · cash $62K (FEC, through Oct. 14, 2026)

All candidates and independent filers →

Who votes against their own party?

Share of party-line votes on which each member sided with their party's majority, 119th Congress, through Sept. 30, 2026. Lowest first; current voting members with at least 50 such votes.

Senate: least party-line

Member	Votes with party
John Fetterman D-PA	79.4%
Susan Collins R-ME	83.4%
Lisa Murkowski R-AK	85.3%
Jeanne Shaheen D-NH	85.5%
Angus King Jr. I-ME	87.1%
Maggie Hassan D-NH	87.2%

House: least party-line

Member	Votes with party
Henry Cuellar D-TX	64.9%
Donald Davis D-NC	69.6%
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D-WA	70.2%
Jared Golden D-ME	70.4%
Vicente Gonzalez D-TX	72.7%
Adam Gray D-CA	75.8%

Every member's party-line score →

How this works

Prices come from the public read APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, money from the FEC's nightly bulk files, and votes from Voteview. A scheduled job rereads them every hour and rebuilds this site; nothing is typed in by hand. Methodology · Data