Dan Osborn

Independent candidate for Nebraska U.S. Senate · general election Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026

Independent Challenger INC '26 slate

Dan Osborn is running for Nebraska U.S. Senate in the Nov. 3, 2026 general election and filed with the FEC as an independent. As of Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC, Kalshi prices Dan Osborn’s chance of winning at 26%. Polymarket’s market on whether an independent wins the race is at 27%. The campaign has reported raising $11.0M and had $2.0M in cash on hand through Oct. 14, 2026.

Named to the 2026 Independent Slate presented at the Independent National Convention (Sept. 23–25, 2026). Source: The Fulcrum, Oct. 14, 2026. Listed as a matter of record, not as an endorsement.

Prediction markets

Kalshi

26% implied chance

24h change: ▲ 2.0 pts · bid 25.0¢ · ask 27.0¢ · last trade 27.0¢

“Will Dan Osborn (as an independent) win the Senate race in Nebraska?”

Source: Kalshi market SENATENE, contract SENATENE-26-DOSB. Total volume 1,450,170 contracts. Read Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC.

Polymarket

27% implied chance

24h change: ▲ 0.5 pts · bid 26.0¢ · ask 28.0¢ · last trade 26.0¢

“Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?”

This market asks whether any independent wins the race, and Dan Osborn is the only independent in this race who has reported more than $100,000 to the FEC.

Source: Polymarket market nebraska-senate-election-winner, contract 634893. Total volume $348K. Read Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC.

Odds over time

KalshiPolymarket

Daily closing prices from each platform's price-history endpoint, then this tracker's hourly reads for the last 14 days. Stored in data/history.csv.

The whole race, as the markets price it

Kalshi

Nebraska Senate winner?

Outcome	Implied chance
Pete Ricketts	74.5%
Dan Osborn	26%
Cindy Burbank	0.2%

Source: Kalshi SENATENE; read Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC.

Polymarket

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Outcome	Implied chance
Pete Ricketts (R)	73.5%
Independent	27%
Democrat	0.1%

Source: Polymarket nebraska-senate-election-winner; read Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC.

Campaign money

Raised

$11.0M

Total receipts, 2025–26

From individuals

$10.6M

Itemized and unitemized

From the candidate

$10

Contributions plus loans

Spent

$9.1M

Total disbursements

Cash on hand

$2.0M

End of the latest report

Debts

$25K

Owed by the campaign

Source: FEC candidate summary S4NE00207 (bulk file weball26), reports through Oct. 14, 2026; file published Oct. 25, 2026, 05:39 UTC. Figures cover the 2025–26 two-year period and include only what the campaign itself reported.

Money in this race

Candidates the race's prediction markets list, with what each campaign reported to the FEC.

	Party			Reports through
Pete Ricketts	R	$14.5M	$1.2M	Oct. 14, 2026
Dan Osborn	I	$11.0M	$2.0M	Oct. 14, 2026
Cindy Burbank	D	$49K	$23K	Sept. 30, 2026

Source: FEC candidate summaries (bulk file weball26). Party labels from the FEC, or from the market where the FEC record has none.

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<a href="https://theguysaccount.github.io/independents-win-tracker/candidates/dan-osborn/"><img src="https://theguysaccount.github.io/independents-win-tracker/badge/dan-osborn.svg" alt="Dan Osborn odds and money, Independents Tracker" height="20"></a>

How these numbers are made: methodology. Something wrong? Report a correction.