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Todd Achilles

Independent candidate for Idaho U.S. Senate · general election Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026

Independent Challenger INC '26 slate

Todd Achilles is running for Idaho U.S. Senate in the Nov. 3, 2026 general election and filed with the FEC as an independent. As of Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC, Kalshi prices Todd Achilles’s chance of winning at 4.5%. Polymarket prices it at 3.5%. The campaign has reported raising $1.9M and had $196K in cash on hand through Oct. 14, 2026.

Named to the 2026 Independent Slate presented at the Independent National Convention (Sept. 23–25, 2026). Source: The Fulcrum, Oct. 14, 2026. Listed as a matter of record, not as an endorsement.

Prediction markets

Kalshi

4.5% implied chance

24h change: ▼ 0.5 pts · bid 4.0¢ · ask 5.0¢ · last trade 5.0¢

“Will Todd Achilless win the Senate race in Idaho?”

Source: Kalshi market SENATEID, contract SENATEID-26-TACH. Total volume 441,145 contracts. Read Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC.

Polymarket

3.5% implied chance

24h change: ▲ 0.5 pts · bid 2.6¢ · ask 4.4¢ · last trade 3.6¢

“Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?”

Source: Polymarket market idaho-senate-election-winner, contract 630707. Total volume $141K. Read Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC.

Odds over time

KalshiPolymarket

Daily closing prices from each platform's price-history endpoint, then this tracker's hourly reads for the last 14 days. Stored in data/history.csv.

The whole race, as the markets price it

Kalshi

Idaho Senate winner?

Outcome	Implied chance
Jim Risch	95%
Todd Achilles	4.5%
David Roth	0.1%

Source: Kalshi SENATEID; read Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC.

Polymarket

Idaho Senate Election Winner

Outcome	Implied chance
Jim Risch (R)	95.5%
Todd Achilles (I)	3.5%
Democrat	0.1%

Source: Polymarket idaho-senate-election-winner; read Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC.

Campaign money

Raised

$1.9M

Total receipts, 2025–26

From individuals

$1.8M

Itemized and unitemized

From the candidate

$34K

Contributions plus loans

Spent

$1.7M

Total disbursements

Cash on hand

$196K

End of the latest report

Debts

$23K

Owed by the campaign

Source: FEC candidate summary S6ID00146 (bulk file weball26), reports through Oct. 14, 2026; file published Oct. 25, 2026, 05:39 UTC. Figures cover the 2025–26 two-year period and include only what the campaign itself reported.

Money in this race

Candidates the race's prediction markets list, with what each campaign reported to the FEC.

	Party			Reports through
Jim Risch	R	$3.9M	$2.1M	Oct. 14, 2026
Todd Achilles	I	$1.9M	$196K	Oct. 14, 2026
David Roth	D	$15K	$278	June 30, 2026

Source: FEC candidate summaries (bulk file weball26). Party labels from the FEC, or from the market where the FEC record has none.

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<a href="https://theguysaccount.github.io/independents-win-tracker/candidates/todd-achilles/"><img src="https://theguysaccount.github.io/independents-win-tracker/badge/todd-achilles.svg" alt="Todd Achilles odds and money, Independents Tracker" height="20"></a>

How these numbers are made: methodology. Something wrong? Report a correction.