Mayra Macías
Independent candidate for Illinois's 4th congressional district · general election Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026
Independent Open seat
Mayra Macías is running for Illinois's 4th congressional district in the Nov. 3, 2026 general election and filed with the FEC as an independent. As of , Kalshi prices Mayra Macías’s chance of winning at 0.5%. The campaign has reported raising $308K and had $6,945 in cash on hand through Sept. 30, 2026.
Prediction markets
24h change: ▼ 1.5 pts · bid 0.0¢ · ask 1.0¢ · last trade 1.0¢
“Will Mayra Macías win the House race for IL-04?”
Thin market: under $25,000 traded in total, so small trades can move this price a lot.
Source: Kalshi market KXHOUSERACE, contract KXHOUSERACE-IL04-26-MMAC. Total volume 3,140 contracts. Read .
No Polymarket market listed Mayra Macías or an independent in this race as of .
Odds over time
Daily closing prices from each platform's price-history endpoint, then this tracker's hourly reads for the last 14 days. Stored in data/history.csv.
The whole race, as the markets price it
IL-04 House winner?
| Outcome | Implied chance |
|---|---|
| Patty Garcia | 95% |
| Chris Getty | 3% |
| Lupe Castillo | 0.9% |
| Mayra Macías | 0.5% |
Source: Kalshi KXHOUSERACE; read .
Campaign money
Source: FEC candidate summary H6IL04179 (bulk file weball26), reports through Sept. 30, 2026; file published . Figures cover the 2025–26 two-year period and include only what the campaign itself reported.
Money in this race
Candidates the race's prediction markets list, with what each campaign reported to the FEC.
| Party | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Patty Garcia | D | $527K | $157K |
| Chris Getty | I | $413K | $103K |
| Mayra Macías | I | $308K | $6,945 |
Source: FEC candidate summaries (bulk file weball26). Party labels from the FEC, or from the market where the FEC record has none.
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How these numbers are made: methodology. Something wrong? Report a correction.