Seth Bodnar
Independent candidate for Montana U.S. Senate · general election Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026
Independent Open seat INC '26 slate
Seth Bodnar is running for Montana U.S. Senate in the Nov. 3, 2026 general election and filed with the FEC as an independent. As of , Kalshi prices Seth Bodnar’s chance of winning at 8.3%. Polymarket’s market on whether an independent wins the race is at 7.4%. The campaign has reported raising $4.9M and had $581K in cash on hand through Oct. 14, 2026.
Named to the 2026 Independent Slate presented at the Independent National Convention (Sept. 23–25, 2026). Source: The Fulcrum, Oct. 14, 2026. Listed as a matter of record, not as an endorsement.
Prediction markets
24h change: ▲ 0.1 pts · bid 8.3¢ · ask 8.4¢ · last trade 8.4¢
“Will Independents win the Senate race in Montana?”
Source: Kalshi market SENATEMT, contract SENATEMT-26-IND. Total volume 447,807 contracts. Read .
24h change: ▲ 0.1 pts · bid 6.9¢ · ask 7.9¢ · last trade 8.1¢
“Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?”
This market asks whether any independent wins the race, and Seth Bodnar is the only independent in this race who has reported more than $100,000 to the FEC.
Source: Polymarket market montana-senate-election-winner, contract 630833. Total volume $34K. Read .
Odds over time
Daily closing prices from each platform's price-history endpoint, then this tracker's hourly reads for the last 14 days. Stored in data/history.csv.
The whole race, as the markets price it
Montana Senate winner?
| Outcome | Implied chance |
|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | 91.4% |
| Seth Bodnar | 8.3% |
| Alani Bankhead | 0.3% |
Source: Kalshi SENATEMT; read .
Montana Senate Election Winner
| Outcome | Implied chance |
|---|---|
| Kurt Alme (R) | 92% |
| Independent | 7.4% |
| Alani Bankhead (D) | 0.1% |
Source: Polymarket montana-senate-election-winner; read .
Campaign money
Source: FEC candidate summary S6MT00287 (bulk file weball26), reports through Oct. 14, 2026; file published . Figures cover the 2025–26 two-year period and include only what the campaign itself reported.
Money in this race
Candidates the race's prediction markets list, with what each campaign reported to the FEC.
| Party | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Bodnar | I | $4.9M | $581K |
| Kurt Alme | R | $3.0M | $603K |
| Alani Bankhead | D | $191K | $23K |
Source: FEC candidate summaries (bulk file weball26). Party labels from the FEC, or from the market where the FEC record has none.
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How these numbers are made: methodology. Something wrong? Report a correction.