Bill Hill

Independent candidate for Alaska at-large U.S. House seat · general election Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026

Independent Challenger INC '26 slate

Bill Hill is running for Alaska at-large U.S. House seat in the Nov. 3, 2026 general election and filed with the FEC as an independent. As of Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC, Kalshi prices Bill Hill’s chance of winning at 20.5%. Polymarket prices it at 19.2%. The campaign has reported raising $2.6M and had $118K in cash on hand through Oct. 14, 2026.

Named to the 2026 Independent Slate presented at the Independent National Convention (Sept. 23–25, 2026). Source: The Fulcrum, Oct. 14, 2026. Listed as a matter of record, not as an endorsement.

Prediction markets

Kalshi

20.5% implied chance

24h change: ▼ 0.5 pts · bid 20.0¢ · ask 21.0¢ · last trade 21.0¢

“Will Bill Hill win the House race for AK-AL?”

Thin market: under $25,000 traded in total, so small trades can move this price a lot.

Source: Kalshi market HOUSEAKAL, contract HOUSEAKAL-26-BHIL. Total volume 10,173 contracts. Read Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC.

Polymarket

19.2% implied chance

24h change: ±0 pts · bid 18.3¢ · ask 20.1¢ · last trade 18.9¢

“Will Bill Hill win the AK-AL House seat?”

Thin market: under $25,000 traded in total, so small trades can move this price a lot.

Source: Polymarket market ak-al-house-election-winner, contract 1279607. Total volume $3,206. Read Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC.

Odds over time

KalshiPolymarket

Daily closing prices from each platform's price-history endpoint, then this tracker's hourly reads for the last 14 days. Stored in data/history.csv.

The whole race, as the markets price it

Kalshi

Alaska House winner?

Outcome	Implied chance
Nick Begich III	78.5%
Bill Hill	20.5%
Eric Hafner	3.1%

Source: Kalshi HOUSEAKAL; read Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC.

Polymarket

AK-AL House Election Winner

Outcome	Implied chance
Republican Party	76%
Bill Hill	19.2%
Democratic Party	2.5%
Jim McDermott	0.1%

Source: Polymarket ak-al-house-election-winner; read Oct. 26, 2026, 00:24 UTC.

Campaign money

Raised

$2.6M

Total receipts, 2025–26

From individuals

$2.4M

Itemized and unitemized

From the candidate

Contributions plus loans

Spent

$2.5M

Total disbursements

Cash on hand

$118K

End of the latest report

Debts

Owed by the campaign

Source: FEC candidate summary H6AK01092 (bulk file weball26), reports through Oct. 14, 2026; file published Oct. 25, 2026, 05:39 UTC. Figures cover the 2025–26 two-year period and include only what the campaign itself reported.

Money in this race

Candidates the race's prediction markets list, with what each campaign reported to the FEC.

	Party			Reports through
Nick Begich III	R	$6.4M	$1.8M	Oct. 14, 2026
Bill Hill	I	$2.6M	$118K	Oct. 14, 2026

Source: FEC candidate summaries (bulk file weball26). Party labels from the FEC, or from the market where the FEC record has none.

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<a href="https://theguysaccount.github.io/independents-win-tracker/candidates/bill-hill/"><img src="https://theguysaccount.github.io/independents-win-tracker/badge/bill-hill.svg" alt="Bill Hill odds and money, Independents Tracker" height="20"></a>

How these numbers are made: methodology. Something wrong? Report a correction.