Kevin Kiley
Other candidate for California's 6th congressional district · general election Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026
Other Incumbent INC '26 slate
Kevin Kiley is running for California's 6th congressional district in the Nov. 3, 2026 general election and filed with the FEC with the party label “Other”. As of , Kalshi prices Kevin Kiley’s chance of winning at 6.2%. The campaign has reported raising $3.7M and had $35K in cash on hand through Oct. 14, 2026.
Named to the 2026 Independent Slate presented at the Independent National Convention (Sept. 23–25, 2026). Source: The Fulcrum, Oct. 14, 2026. Listed as a matter of record, not as an endorsement.
Prediction markets
24h change: ▼ 1.2 pts · bid 5.3¢ · ask 7.2¢ · last trade 6.5¢
“Will Kevin Kiley win the House race for CA-06?”
Thin market: under $25,000 traded in total, so small trades can move this price a lot.
Source: Kalshi market KXHOUSERACE, contract KXHOUSERACE-CA06-26-KKIL. Total volume 17,869 contracts. Read .
No Polymarket market listed Kevin Kiley or an independent in this race as of .
Odds over time
Daily closing prices from each platform's price-history endpoint, then this tracker's hourly reads for the last 14 days. Stored in data/history.csv.
The whole race, as the markets price it
CA-06 House winner?
| Outcome | Implied chance |
|---|---|
| Richard Pan | 94% |
| Kevin Kiley | 6.2% |
| Republican party | 0.5% |
Source: Kalshi KXHOUSERACE; read .
CA-06 House Election Winner
| Outcome | Implied chance |
|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 96% |
| Republican Party | 1.9% |
Source: Polymarket ca-06-house-election-winner; read .
Campaign money
Source: FEC candidate summary H2CA03157 (bulk file weball26), reports through Oct. 14, 2026; file published . Figures cover the 2025–26 two-year period and include only what the campaign itself reported.
Money in this race
Candidates the race's prediction markets list, with what each campaign reported to the FEC.
| Party | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiley | I | $3.7M | $35K |
| Richard Pan | D | $2.5M | $208K |
Source: FEC candidate summaries (bulk file weball26). Party labels from the FEC, or from the market where the FEC record has none.
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How these numbers are made: methodology. Something wrong? Report a correction.