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Michael Eisenhauer

Independent candidate for Montana's 2nd congressional district · general election Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026

Independent Challenger

Michael Eisenhauer is running for Montana's 2nd congressional district in the Nov. 3, 2026 general election and filed with the FEC as an independent. Polymarket’s market on whether an independent wins the race is at 0%. The campaign has reported raising $354K and had $23K in cash on hand through Oct. 14, 2026.

Prediction markets

Kalshi

No market

No Kalshi market listed Michael Eisenhauer or an independent in this race as of Nov. 4, 2026, 11:36 UTC.

Polymarket

Resolved NO

bid 0.0¢ · ask 100.0¢ · last trade 0.0¢

“Will another party win the MT-02 House seat?”

This market asks whether any independent wins the race, and Michael Eisenhauer is the only independent in this race who has reported more than $100,000 to the FEC.

Source: Polymarket market mt-02-house-election-winner, contract 1283995. Total volume $0. Read Nov. 4, 2026, 11:36 UTC.

The whole race, as the markets price it

Polymarket

MT-02 House Election Winner

Outcome	Implied chance
Troy Downing (R)	Resolved YES
Brian Miller (D)	Resolved NO
Other	Resolved NO
A	Resolved NO
B	Resolved NO
C	Resolved NO
D	Resolved NO
E	Resolved NO

Source: Polymarket mt-02-house-election-winner; read Nov. 4, 2026, 11:36 UTC.

Campaign money

Raised

$354K

Total receipts, 2025–26

From individuals

$97K

Itemized and unitemized

From the candidate

$250K

Contributions plus loans

Spent

$331K

Total disbursements

Cash on hand

$23K

End of the latest report

Debts

$266K

Owed by the campaign

Source: FEC candidate summary H6MT02168 (bulk file weball26), reports through Oct. 14, 2026; file published Nov. 4, 2026, 06:40 UTC. Figures cover the 2025–26 two-year period and include only what the campaign itself reported.

Money in this race

Candidates the race's prediction markets list, with what each campaign reported to the FEC.

	Party			Reports through
Troy Downing	R	$2.7M	$747K	Oct. 14, 2026
Michael Eisenhauer	I	$354K	$23K	Oct. 14, 2026
Brian Miller	D	$31K	$669	Oct. 14, 2026

Source: FEC candidate summaries (bulk file weball26). Party labels from the FEC, or from the market where the FEC record has none.

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<a href="https://theguysaccount.github.io/independents-win-tracker/candidates/michael-eisenhauer/"><img src="https://theguysaccount.github.io/independents-win-tracker/badge/michael-eisenhauer.svg" alt="Michael Eisenhauer odds and money, Independents Tracker" height="20"></a>

How these numbers are made: methodology. Something wrong? Report a correction.